23 July 2026, 01:30 UTC

Colorado Rapids vs San Diego Major League Soccer prediction & result

Dick's Sporting Goods Park, Trade City
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Colorado Rapids 1-0 San Diego.

Before kick-off the model made it 25% Colorado Rapids, 28% draw, 47% San Diego — fair odds of 4.00, 3.57 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts San Diego at 47% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
C. McVey
L. Williams
22'
R. Cannon
28'
70'
🔁K. Sargeantout: I. Murphy
70'
🔁A. Godoyout: A. Alvarado Jr
71'
I. Murphy
🔁G. Minoungouout: D. Yapi
72'
Rafael Navarro
82'
83'
🔁M. Ingvartsenout: L. Morgan
D. Yapi
84'
🔁R. Cannonout: L. Herrington
90'
🔁R. Holdingout: N. Cobb
90'
90+2'
🔁A. Mightenout: B. B. Zamble
🔁J. Atencioout: D. Phillip
90+3'
90+5'
L. Morgan
⚽L. Williamsassist: P. Aaronson
90+5'

Match stats — Colorado Rapids vs San Diego

52%Possession48%
8Shots6
2On target2
5Corners3
0.47xG0.78

Goals against chances

Colorado Rapids1 from 0.47 xGmore than the chances were worth
San Diego0 from 0.78 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Colorado Rapids 4-3-3
  • 41Nicholas Defreitas-HansenG
  • 4Reggie CannonD
  • 6Rob HoldingD
  • 5Loïc WilliamsD
  • 33Kosi ThompsonD
  • 8Hamzat OjediranM
  • 10Paxten AaronsonM
  • 12Josh AtencioM
  • 7Dante SealyF
  • 9Rafael NavarroF
  • 93Georgi MinoungouF
Substitutes
  • 77Darren YapiF
  • 24Noah CobbD
  • 22Lucas HerringtonD
  • 32Donavan PhillipF
  • 31Adam BeaudryG
  • 2Keegan RosenberryD
  • 18Bryce JamisonF
  • 15Ali FadalM
  • 16Alex HarrisF
Coach: Matt Wells
San Diego 4-2-3-1
  • 1CJ Dos SantosG
  • 33Oscar VerhoevenD
  • 97Christopher McVeyD
  • 26Manu DuahD
  • 5Kieran SargeantD
  • 20Aníbal GodoyM
  • 6Jeppe TverskovM
  • 10Anders DreyerM
  • 8Onni ValakariM
  • 77Alex MightenM
  • 7Marcus IngvartsenF
Substitutes
  • 32Ian MurphyD
  • 70Alejandro Alvarado JrF
  • 9Lewis MorganF
  • 14Bryan ZambléF
  • 18Duran FerreeG
  • 25Ian PilcherD
  • 2Willy KumadoD
  • 15Pedro SomaM
  • 19David VazquezM
Coach: Mikey Varas

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Colorado Rapids25112123332+135
9San Diego2586114242030

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Colorado Rapids vs San Diego

  • 23 July 2026Colorado Rapids 1–0 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
  • 15 May 2025San Diego 2–0 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
  • 13 April 2025Colorado Rapids 3–2 San DiegoMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Colorado Rapids and San Diego

Colorado Rapids

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.

San Diego

  • M. Ingvartsen11 goals3 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.