Colorado Rapids vs San Diego Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Colorado Rapids 1-0 San Diego.
Before kick-off the model made it 25% Colorado Rapids, 28% draw, 47% San Diego — fair odds of 4.00, 3.57 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts San Diego at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Colorado Rapids vs San Diego
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 41Nicholas Defreitas-HansenG
- 4Reggie CannonD
- 6Rob HoldingD
- 5Loïc WilliamsD
- 33Kosi ThompsonD
- 8Hamzat OjediranM
- 10Paxten AaronsonM
- 12Josh AtencioM
- 7Dante SealyF
- 9Rafael NavarroF
- 93Georgi MinoungouF
- 77Darren YapiF
- 24Noah CobbD
- 22Lucas HerringtonD
- 32Donavan PhillipF
- 31Adam BeaudryG
- 2Keegan RosenberryD
- 18Bryce JamisonF
- 15Ali FadalM
- 16Alex HarrisF
- 1CJ Dos SantosG
- 33Oscar VerhoevenD
- 97Christopher McVeyD
- 26Manu DuahD
- 5Kieran SargeantD
- 20Aníbal GodoyM
- 6Jeppe TverskovM
- 10Anders DreyerM
- 8Onni ValakariM
- 77Alex MightenM
- 7Marcus IngvartsenF
- 32Ian MurphyD
- 70Alejandro Alvarado JrF
- 9Lewis MorganF
- 14Bryan ZambléF
- 18Duran FerreeG
- 25Ian PilcherD
- 2Willy KumadoD
- 15Pedro SomaM
- 19David VazquezM
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 44 | 43 | +1 | 43 |
| 13 | San Diego | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 56 | 62 | -6 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Colorado Rapids vs San Diego
- 15 May 2025San Diego 2–0 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
- 13 April 2025Colorado Rapids 3–2 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
The result against the call
Colorado Rapids beat San Diego 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for San Diego at 47% and given a win for Colorado Rapids 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: L. Williams 90+5' for Colorado Rapids. On expected goals it finished 0.47–0.78.