Charlotte vs Atlanta United FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Charlotte 2-2 Atlanta United FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Charlotte, 24% draw, 22% Atlanta United FC — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Charlotte at 54% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Charlotte vs Atlanta United FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Kristijan KahlinaG
- 35Will ClearyD
- 44Morrison AgyemangD
- 3Tim ReamD
- 15Harry ToffoloD
- 18Kerwin Calderón VargasM
- 8Ashley WestwoodM
- 17Luca De La TorreM
- 11Liel AbadaM
- 16Pep BielF
- 7Archie GoodwinF
- 28Djibril DianiM
- 9Idan ToklomatiF
- 37Rodolfo AlokoF
- 14Nathan ByrneD
- 25Tyger SmallsF
- 21Tyler MillerG
- 22Henry KesslerD
- 4Andrew PrivettD
- 13Brandt BronicoM
- 1Lucas HoyosG
- 55Tomás JacobD
- 4Enea MihajD
- 6Junior AlonsoD
- 3Elías BáezD
- 28William ReillyM
- 59Aleksey MiranchukM
- 48Cooper SanchezM
- 8Tristan MuyumbaM
- 10Miguel AlmirónM
- 22Fafà PicaultF
- 20Luke BrennanM
- 56Ignacio Suarez-CouriM
- 5Stian GregersenD
- 42Jayden HibbertG
- 2Ronald HernándezD
- 41Toto MajubD
- 16Adrian GillM
- 30Cayman TogashiF
- 39Arif KovacF
Form going into Charlotte vs Atlanta United FC
Charlotte
No earlier matches on record this season.
Atlanta United FC
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Nashville SC18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Charlotte | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 59 | 48 | +11 | 50 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 32 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 40 | 56 | -16 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Charlotte vs Atlanta United FC
- 28 April 2026Charlotte 0–2 Atlanta United FCUS Open Cup
- 19 July 2025Atlanta United FC 2–3 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- 1 March 2025Charlotte 2–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 31 August 2024Charlotte 0–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 2 June 2024Atlanta United FC 2–3 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Charlotte and Atlanta United FC
Charlotte
GoalsAssists
- I. Toklomati Giorno155
Atlanta United FC
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 40 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Charlotte and Atlanta United FC drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Charlotte at 54% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: K. A. Calderon Vargas 16' for Charlotte, L. Abada 45' for Charlotte, E. Baez 57' for Atlanta United FC, M. Almiron 76' for Atlanta United FC. On expected goals it finished 2.67–1.63.