23 July 2026, 00:15 UTC

Charlotte vs Atlanta United FC Major League Soccer prediction & result

Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Charlotte 2-2 Atlanta United FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Charlotte, 24% draw, 22% Atlanta United FC — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Charlotte at 54% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽K. A. Calderon Vargas
16'
22'
W. Reilly
⚽L. Abadaassist: P. Biel
45'
48'
A. Miranchuk
57'
⚽E. Baezassist: T. Jacob
🔁A. Goodwinout: I. Toklomati
63'
🔁L. Abadaout: R. Aloko
63'
🔁L. de la Torreout: D. Diani
63'
🔁W. Clearyout: N. Byrne
64'
76'
⚽M. Almiron
N. Byrne
79'
82'
🔁F. Picaultout: L. Brennan
🔁K. A. Calderon Vargasout: T. Smalls
85'
89'
🔁C. Sanchezout: I. Suarez
90+3'
🔁J. Alonsoout: S. Gregersen
90+10'
T. Jacob

Match stats — Charlotte vs Atlanta United FC

51%Possession49%
23Shots12
9On target6
6Corners3
2.67xG1.63

Goals against chances

Charlotte2 from 2.67 xGless than the chances were worth
Atlanta United FC2 from 1.63 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Charlotte 4-4-2
  • 1Kristijan KahlinaG
  • 35Will ClearyD
  • 44Morrison AgyemangD
  • 3Tim ReamD
  • 15Harry ToffoloD
  • 18Kerwin Calderón VargasM
  • 8Ashley WestwoodM
  • 17Luca De La TorreM
  • 11Liel AbadaM
  • 16Pep BielF
  • 7Archie GoodwinF
Substitutes
  • 28Djibril DianiM
  • 9Idan ToklomatiF
  • 37Rodolfo AlokoF
  • 14Nathan ByrneD
  • 25Tyger SmallsF
  • 21Tyler MillerG
  • 22Henry KesslerD
  • 4Andrew PrivettD
  • 13Brandt BronicoM
Coach: Dean Smith
Atlanta United FC 4-1-4-1
  • 1Lucas HoyosG
  • 55Tomás JacobD
  • 4Enea MihajD
  • 6Junior AlonsoD
  • 3Elías BáezD
  • 28William ReillyM
  • 59Aleksey MiranchukM
  • 48Cooper SanchezM
  • 8Tristan MuyumbaM
  • 10Miguel AlmirónM
  • 22Fafà PicaultF
Substitutes
  • 20Luke BrennanM
  • 56Ignacio Suarez-CouriM
  • 5Stian GregersenD
  • 42Jayden HibbertG
  • 2Ronald HernándezD
  • 41Toto MajubD
  • 16Adrian GillM
  • 30Cayman TogashiF
  • 39Arif KovacF
Coach: Gerardo Martino

Form going into Charlotte vs Atlanta United FC

Charlotte

No earlier matches on record this season.

Atlanta United FC

  • L0-1away to Nashville SC18 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Charlotte vs Atlanta United FC

  • 23 July 2026Charlotte 2–2 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 28 April 2026Charlotte 0–2 Atlanta United FCUS Open Cup
  • 19 July 2025Atlanta United FC 2–3 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
  • 1 March 2025Charlotte 2–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 31 August 2024Charlotte 0–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
  • 2 June 2024Atlanta United FC 2–3 CharlotteMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Charlotte and Atlanta United FC

Charlotte

  • Pep Biel11 goals6 assists

Atlanta United FC

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.