Austin vs Seattle Sounders Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Austin 3-1 Seattle Sounders.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Austin, 27% draw, 25% Seattle Sounders — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Austin at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Austin vs Seattle Sounders
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Brad StuverG
- 4Brendan Hines-IkeD
- 5Oleksandr SvatokD
- 29Guilherme BiroD
- 30Joseph RosalesM
- 14Besard SabovićM
- 6Ilie SánchezM
- 17Jon GallagherM
- 11Facundo TorresF
- 9Brandon VázquezF
- 10Myrto UzuniF
- 77Przemysław PłachetaM
- 33Owen WolffM
- 35Mateja ĐorđevićD
- 38Ervin TorresM
- 21Christian RamirezF
- 12Damian LasG
- 23Žan KolmaničD
- 20Nicolas DubersarskyM
- 7Jayden NelsonF
- 26Andrew ThomasG
- 45Peter KingstonD
- 39Stuart HawkinsD
- 25Jackson RagenD
- 5Nouhou ToloD
- 37Snyder BrunellM
- 31Hassani DotsonM
- 9Jesús FerreiraM
- 11Albert RusnákM
- 14Paul RothrockM
- 19Daniel MusovskiF
- 95Osaze De RosarioF
- 85Kalani Kossa-RienziM
- 17Paul ArriolaF
- 90Sebastian GomezM
- 50Max AnchorG
- 24Stefan FreiG
- 35Antino LopezD
- 28Yeimar GómezD
- 53Gallatin SandnesD
Form going into Austin vs Seattle Sounders
Austin
No earlier matches on record this season.
Seattle Sounders
All competitions we cover
- L1-5Portland Timbers17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Austin | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 41 | 59 | -18 | 34 |
| 8 | Seattle Sounders | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Austin vs Seattle Sounders
- 21 September 2025Austin 2–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 29 June 2025Seattle Sounders 2–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 14 July 2024Austin 0–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 3 March 2024Seattle Sounders 0–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 31 August 2023Austin 1–2 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
The result against the call
Austin beat Seattle Sounders 3–1. The model had made a win for Austin its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: I. Sanchez 11' for Austin, P. Rothrock 26' for Seattle Sounders, M. Uzuni 86' for Austin, C. Ramirez 90+1' for Austin. Sent off: J. Ragen (Seattle Sounders) 90+4'. On expected goals it finished 1.15–1.28.