Austin vs Seattle Sounders Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Austin 3-1 Seattle Sounders.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Austin, 27% draw, 25% Seattle Sounders — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Austin at 48% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Austin vs Seattle Sounders
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Brad StuverG
- 4Brendan Hines-IkeD
- 5Oleksandr SvatokD
- 29Guilherme BiroD
- 30Joseph RosalesM
- 14Besard SabovićM
- 6Ilie SánchezM
- 17Jon GallagherM
- 11Facundo TorresF
- 9Brandon VázquezF
- 10Myrto UzuniF
- 77Przemysław PłachetaM
- 33Owen WolffM
- 35Mateja ĐorđevićD
- 38Ervin TorresM
- 21Christian RamirezF
- 12Damian LasG
- 23Žan KolmaničD
- 20Nicolas DubersarskyM
- 7Jayden NelsonF
- 26Andrew ThomasG
- 45Peter KingstonD
- 39Stuart HawkinsD
- 25Jackson RagenD
- 5Nouhou ToloD
- 37Snyder BrunellM
- 31Hassani DotsonM
- 9Jesús FerreiraM
- 11Albert RusnákM
- 14Paul RothrockM
- 19Daniel MusovskiF
- 95Osaze De RosarioF
- 85Kalani Kossa-RienziM
- 17Paul ArriolaF
- 90Sebastian GomezM
- 50Max AnchorG
- 24Stefan FreiG
- 35Antino LopezD
- 28Yeimar GómezD
- 53Gallatin SandnesD
Form going into Austin vs Seattle Sounders
Austin
No earlier matches on record this season.
Seattle Sounders
- L1-5Portland Timbers17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Austin | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 29 |
| 14 | Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Austin vs Seattle Sounders
- 23 July 2026Austin 3–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 21 September 2025Austin 2–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 29 June 2025Seattle Sounders 2–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 14 July 2024Austin 0–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 3 March 2024Seattle Sounders 0–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
- 31 August 2023Austin 1–2 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer