Houston Dynamo vs DC United Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Houston Dynamo 1-1 DC United.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Houston Dynamo, 25% draw, 44% DC United — fair odds of 3.23, 4.00 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts DC United at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Houston Dynamo vs DC United
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31Jonathan BondG
- 36Felipe AndradeD
- 5Lucas HalterD
- 34Agustin ReschD
- 11Lawrence EnnaliD
- 6ArturM
- 19Mateusz BoguszM
- 8Jack McGlynnM
- 16Héctor HerreraM
- 20GuilhermeM
- 23Duncan McGuireF
- 10Ezequiel PonceF
- 28Erik SviatchenkoD
- 21Franco NegriD
- 18Diadié SamassékouM
- 14Duane HolmesM
- 9Ondrej LingrM
- 26Blake GillinghamG
- 30Agustín BouzatM
- 24Ibrahim AliyuF
- 1Sean JohnsonG
- 5Silvan HeftiD
- 3Lucas BartlettD
- 13Sean NealisD
- 6Keisuke KurokawaD
- 25Jackson HopkinsM
- 21Andre DozzellM
- 23Brandon ServaniaM
- 7João PeglowM
- 9Tai BariboF
- 11Louis MunteanuF
- 4Matti PeltolaD
- 77Hosei KijimaM
- 8Jared StroudM
- 22Nathan OrdazF
- 27Nikola MarkovicD
- 26Alex BonoG
- 20Grant LeveilleG
- 32Oscar AvilezF
- 17Jacob MurrellF
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Houston Dynamo | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 42 | 39 | +3 | 51 |
| 13 | DC United | 32 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 39 | 57 | -18 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Houston Dynamo vs DC United
- 15 February 2025Houston Dynamo 1–3 DC UnitedFriendlies Clubs
- 22 June 2024DC United 1–4 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 7 May 2022DC United 2–0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- 19 May 2019Houston Dynamo 2–1 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 17 March 2018DC United 2–2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Houston Dynamo and DC United
Houston Dynamo
GoalsAssists
- Guilherme168
DC United
GoalsAssists
- T. Baribo161
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Houston Dynamo and DC United drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for DC United at 44% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: H. Herrera 40' for Houston Dynamo, T. Baribo 78' for DC United. On expected goals it finished 1.04–0.85.