23 July 2026, 00:30 UTC

Houston Dynamo vs DC United Major League Soccer prediction & result

Shell Energy Stadium, Houston
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Houston Dynamo 1-1 DC United.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Houston Dynamo, 25% draw, 44% DC United — fair odds of 3.23, 4.00 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts DC United at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽H. Herrera
40'
53'
🔁J. Hopkinsout: M. Peltola
🔁D. McGuireout: E. Ponce
59'
🔁Lucas Halterout: E. Sviatchenko
61'
67'
S. Hefti
68'
🔁B. Servaniaout: J. Stroud
68'
🔁L. Munteanuout: N. Ordaz
68'
🔁Peglowout: H. Kijima
Artur
70'
71'
T. Baribo
72'
A. Dozzell
🔁L. Ennaliout: F. Negri
77'
🔁H. Herreraout: D. Samassekou
78'
78'
⚽T. Bariboassist: N. Ordaz
🔁M. Boguszout: O. Lingr
88'
🔁Felipe Andradeout: D. Holmes
88'
88'
🔁A. Dozzellout: N. Markovic
90+5'
J. Stroud
E. Sviatchenko
90+7'

Match stats — Houston Dynamo vs DC United

64%Possession36%
20Shots7
5On target1
3Corners3
1.04xG0.85

Goals against chances

Houston Dynamo1 from 1.04 xGabout what the chances were worth
DC United1 from 0.85 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Houston Dynamo 4-1-4-1
  • 31Jonathan BondG
  • 36Felipe AndradeD
  • 5Lucas HalterD
  • 34Agustin ReschD
  • 11Lawrence EnnaliD
  • 6ArturM
  • 19Mateusz BoguszM
  • 8Jack McGlynnM
  • 16Héctor HerreraM
  • 20GuilhermeM
  • 23Duncan McGuireF
Substitutes
  • 10Ezequiel PonceF
  • 28Erik SviatchenkoD
  • 21Franco NegriD
  • 18Diadié SamassékouM
  • 14Duane HolmesM
  • 9Ondrej LingrM
  • 26Blake GillinghamG
  • 30Agustín BouzatM
  • 24Ibrahim AliyuF
Coach: Ben Olsen
DC United 4-4-2
  • 1Sean JohnsonG
  • 5Silvan HeftiD
  • 3Lucas BartlettD
  • 13Sean NealisD
  • 6Keisuke KurokawaD
  • 25Jackson HopkinsM
  • 21Andre DozzellM
  • 23Brandon ServaniaM
  • 7João PeglowM
  • 9Tai BariboF
  • 11Louis MunteanuF
Substitutes
  • 4Matti PeltolaD
  • 77Hosei KijimaM
  • 8Jared StroudM
  • 22Nathan OrdazF
  • 27Nikola MarkovicD
  • 26Alex BonoG
  • 20Grant LeveilleG
  • 32Oscar AvilezF
  • 17Jacob MurrellF
Coach: Rene Weiler

Head-to-head: Houston Dynamo vs DC United

  • 23 July 2026Houston Dynamo 1–1 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
  • 15 February 2025Houston Dynamo 1–3 DC UnitedFriendlies Clubs
  • 22 June 2024DC United 1–4 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 7 May 2022DC United 2–0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 19 May 2019Houston Dynamo 2–1 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
  • 17 March 2018DC United 2–2 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Houston Dynamo and DC United

Houston Dynamo

  • Guilherme13 goals6 assists

DC United

  • T. Baribo14 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.