23 July 2026, 00:30 UTC

Nashville SC vs CF Montreal Major League Soccer prediction & result

Geodis Park, Nashville
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Nashville SC 1-0 CF Montreal.

Before kick-off the model made it 66% Nashville SC, 22% draw, 12% CF Montreal — fair odds of 1.52, 4.55 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Nashville SC at 66% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁J. Bauerout: A. Najar
57'
🔁E. Tagsethout: B. Acosta
66'
🔁A. Muylout: A. Qasem
66'
⚽S. Surridge (pen)
68'
74'
🔁F. Herbersout: D. Rios
74'
🔁J. Nealout: E. Morales
82'
🔁N. Streitout: O. Escobar
S. Surridge
86'
88'
🔁M. Longstaffout: F. Amaya
🔁S. Mohammedout: J. Maher
89'
🔁M. Corcoranout: C. Brunet
90'
90+7'
P. Owusu

Match stats — Nashville SC vs CF Montreal

63%Possession37%
10Shots7
1On target2
3Corners2
1.7xG0.71

Goals against chances

Nashville SC1 from 1.70 xGless than the chances were worth
CF Montreal0 from 0.71 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Nashville SC 4-2-3-1
  • 99Brian SchwakeG
  • 22Josh BauerD
  • 4Jeisson PalaciosD
  • 3Maxwell WoledziD
  • 2Daniel LovitzD
  • 14Shakur MohammedM
  • 16Matthew CorcoranM
  • 20Edvard TagsethM
  • 10Hany MukhtarM
  • 19Alex MuylM
  • 9Sam SurridgeF
Substitutes
  • 31Andy NajarD
  • 37Ahmed QasemF
  • 6Bryan AcostaM
  • 5Jack MaherD
  • 12Charles-Emile BrunetM
  • 1Joe WillisG
  • 21Thomas WilliamsD
  • 23Jordan KnightD
  • 17Woobens PaciusF
Coach: Brian Callaghan
CF Montreal 4-3-3
  • 1Sebastian BrezaG
  • 27Dawid BugajD
  • 2Jalen NealD
  • 4Brayan VeraD
  • 13Luca PetrassoD
  • 21Fabian HerbersM
  • 8Matthew LongstaffM
  • 22Victor LoturiM
  • 18Hennadii SynchukF
  • 9Prince OwusuF
  • 23Noah StreitF
Substitutes
  • 24Efraín MoralesD
  • 14Daniel RiosF
  • 29Olger EscobarF
  • 25Frankie AmayaM
  • 41Samsy KeitaG
  • 5Brandan CraigD
  • 6Samuel PietteM
  • 17Dagur Dan ÞórhallssonD
  • 26Ivan LosenkoM
Coach: Philippe Eullaffroy

Form going into Nashville SC vs CF Montreal

Nashville SC

  • W1-0Atlanta United FC18 July 2026

CF Montreal

No earlier matches on record this season.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Nashville SC vs CF Montreal

  • 23 July 2026Nashville SC 1–0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
  • 4 October 2025CF Montreal 1–1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
  • 23 March 2025Nashville SC 3–0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
  • 25 May 2024CF Montreal 0–0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
  • 5 May 2024Nashville SC 4–1 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
  • 21 June 2023CF Montreal 1–0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Nashville SC and CF Montreal

Nashville SC

  • S. Surridge15 goals
  • H. Mukhtar10 goals6 assists

CF Montreal

  • P. Owusu13 goals6 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.