FF Jaro vs SJK Finnish Premier League prediction & result
Final score: FF Jaro 1-1 SJK.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% FF Jaro, 31% draw, 41% SJK — fair odds of 3.57, 3.23 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts SJK at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FF Jaro vs SJK
Line-ups
- 1S. VitsG
- 21J. MyrevikD
- 4M. OgungbaroD
- 6J. BrunellD
- 19F. O. NessD
- 5A. BjonbackD
- 7J. SkauD
- 25G. KocsisD
- 77A. SabriyeM
- 26M. PedersenM
- 91V. VuorinenM
- 12J. SnellmanG
- 2F. KassD
- 20T. SoderstromD
- 8O. Kass KawoM
- 24V. LofsM
- 18E. HolmangF
- 27J. Vikstrom
- 1R. PaunioG
- 5O. VaistoD
- 2F. CostantiniD
- 28K. NwanegeD
- 4K. PiresD
- 8A. BostromM
- 48A. TraoreM
- 15E. MommoD
- 22L. VesterbackaM
- 9J. StrengF
- 31E. OnuohaM
- 35J. ViitalaG
- 26J. MoisioD
- 19E. MastokangasM
- 6S. YussifD
- 42Caio Araujo
- 27A. VelliosF
- 7KelwinF
- 51A. CisseF
- 43S. BagayogoD
Form going into FF Jaro vs SJK
FF Jaro
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Ilves8 September 2026
- L0-2away to Mariehamn31 August 2026
- L0-1AC Oulu22 August 2026
- L0-3away to HJK Helsinki16 August 2026
- L1-3VPS8 August 2026
SJK
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Turku PS8 September 2026
- D0-0away to AC Oulu31 August 2026
- L1-2Lahti21 August 2026
- L0-2away to Mariehamn15 August 2026
- D2-2Gnistan7 August 2026
What these results say
- FF Jaro did not win any of these 5 matches.
- FF Jaro conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FF Jaro failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- SJK did not win any of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Head-to-head: FF Jaro vs SJK
- 24 July 2026FF Jaro 2–1 SJKFinnish Premier League
- 24 April 2026SJK 1–1 FF JaroFinnish Premier League
- 18 March 2026SJK 2–1 FF JaroFriendlies Clubs
- 24 January 2026SJK 1–2 FF JaroLeague Cup
- 18 August 2025FF Jaro 0–4 SJKFinnish Premier League
The result against the call
FF Jaro and SJK drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for SJK at 41% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: V. Vuorinen 27' for FF Jaro, E. Mastokangas 70' for SJK.
How the call on FF Jaro v SJK has moved
First published on 3 Sep at 37% / 27% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 28% / 31% / 41%: the biggest move is FF Jaro's chance of winning, down 9 points.
- FF Jaro win28%▼ −9
- Draw31%▲ +4
- SJK win41%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.