FF Jaro
vs
SJK
Veikkausliiga prediction & result
Final score: FF Jaro 1-1 SJK.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% FF Jaro, 30% draw, 33% SJK — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FF Jaro 1.30, SJK 1.16.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: FF Jaro vs SJK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FF Jaro at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FF Jaro vs SJK
FF Jaro
- L0-2away to Ilves8 September 2026
- L0-2away to Mariehamn31 August 2026
- L0-1AC Oulu22 August 2026
- L0-3away to HJK Helsinki16 August 2026
SJK
- D0-0away to Turku PS8 September 2026
- D0-0away to AC Oulu31 August 2026
- L1-2Lahti21 August 2026
- L0-2away to Mariehamn15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FF Jaro | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 15 |
| 10 | SJK | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FF Jaro vs SJK
- 24 July 2026FF Jaro 2–1 SJKVeikkausliiga
- 24 April 2026SJK 1–1 FF JaroVeikkausliiga
- 18 March 2026SJK 2–1 FF JaroFriendlies Clubs
- 24 January 2026SJK 1–2 FF JaroLeague Cup
- 18 August 2025FF Jaro 0–4 SJKVeikkausliiga
- 14 June 2025SJK 3–1 FF JaroVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: FF Jaro and SJK
FF Jaro
- H. Sjögrell5 goals1 assists
SJK
- E. Mastokangas2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FF Jaro carry a model rating of 5.89 against 5.98 for SJK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for FF Jaro and 1.16 for SJK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FF Jaro rate 0.36 in attack and 2.46 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SJK rate 0.39 and 2.22.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour SJK, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FF Jaro the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.3 expected goals for FF Jaro against 1.16 for SJK. FF Jaro's attack/defence rating is 0.36/2.46 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.39/2.22 for SJK.