Sporting Gijon vs Sabadell Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Sporting Gijon 0-0 Sabadell.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Sporting Gijon, 24% draw, 45% Sabadell — fair odds of 3.23, 4.17 and 2.22.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Sabadell at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sporting Gijon vs Sabadell
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. YanezG
- 2G. RosasD
- 4E. GularteD
- 15P. VazquezD
- 5D. SanchezD
- 10C. Gelabert PinaM
- 8M. RodriguezM
- 14A. CorrederaM
- 20N. IosifovM
- 19J. OteroF
- 16A. SarcoF
- 13E. AranaG
- 3P. GarciaD
- 24A. DunabeitiaD
- 26I. MartinezD
- 23J. SaenzD
- 22H. GuillamonM
- 6Nacho MartinM
- 11K. de la FuenteM
- 27E. O. PrendesF
- 1D. FuoliG
- 14O. Sanz
- 6E. GonzalezD
- 5BonaldoD
- 20A. Orriols CerarolsM
- 7T. RipollM
- 22Q. LiameedM
- 8P. PonsM
- 4M. CodinaM
- 19Y. RahmaniF
- 23J. PriegoF
- 13J. OrtegaG
- 31M. EstevezG
- 15J. C. Lazaro CerveraD
- 27J. CatalaD
- 24E. Aguilar Elizalde
- 30X. MorenoM
- 17A. CosciaF
- 16N. GioacchiniF
- 10M. A. Ramirez CarrascoF
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sporting Gijon | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 22 |
| 13 | Sabadell | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting Gijon vs Sabadell
- 20 March 2021Sabadell 1–1 Sporting GijonSegunda División
- 25 November 2020Sporting Gijon 3–1 SabadellSegunda División
The result against the call
Sporting Gijon and Sabadell drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Sabadell at 45% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.82–2.01.