17 August 2026, 19:30 UTC

Almeria vs Eldense Segunda División prediction & result

UD Almeria Stadium, Almeria
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Almeria 3-0 Eldense.

Before kick-off the model made it 84% Almeria, 10% draw, 6% Eldense — fair odds of 1.19, 10.00 and 16.67.

Most likely scoreline: 3-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Almeria at 84%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Almeria99%Draw1%Eldense0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
David Ruiz Montero
⚽F. Boniniassist: N. Melamed
15'
25'
Jesús Clemente
Stefan Džodić
34'
44'
Guillermo Macho
•Stefan Džodić
45+3'
⚽S. Dzodicassist: M. de la Fuente
45'
⚽N. Melamed
45'
61'
🔁M. Bustilloout: J. Rastrojo
🔁A. Embarbaout: B. Cipenga
66'
🔁N. Melamedout: Q. Junyent
66'
76'
🔁M. Carmonaout: J. Martin
76'
🔁P. Cabanesout: Rodri
🔁D. Chirinoout: M. Luna
81'
🔁S. Arribasout: Leo Baptistao
81'
83'
🔁G. Machoout: B. Calvo
83'
🔁Fidelout: C. Guirao
🔁S. Dzodicout: M. Vesga
88'
⚽Léo Baptistão (pen)
90+7'

Match stats — Almeria vs Eldense

57%Possession43%
15Shots11
5On target3
7Corners8

Line-ups

Almeria 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. FernandezG
  • 22D. ChirinoD
  • 5J. PulidoD
  • 18F. BoniniD
  • 3A. MunozD
  • 29S. DzodicM
  • 8Gui GuedesM
  • 23A. EmbarbaM
  • 11S. ArribasM
  • 10N. MelamedM
  • 24M. de la FuenteF
Substitutes
  • 13F. MartinezG
  • 30J. LopezG
  • 19Rodrigo ElyD
  • 21ChumiD
  • 20A. SolaM
  • 2M. LunaD
  • 4N. MonteD
  • 17B. CipengaM
  • 33Q. JunyentM
Coach: Javier Garcia Pimienta Francisco
Eldense 4-2-3-1
  • 1R. VilaG
  • 17J. ClementeD
  • 4F. SmandD
  • 34J. OlaizolaD
  • 21D. RuizD
  • 14J. SmithM
  • 18G. MachoM
  • 10FidelM
  • 8M. BustilloM
  • 16P. CabanesM
  • 9M. CarmonaF
Substitutes
  • 36D. Bernabeu
  • 13JuanpaG
  • 23J. MartinD
  • 26I. CarbonellD
  • 22J. YandaD
  • 31A. MarinD
  • 6B. CalvoM
  • 15C. GuiraoM
  • 30D. RodriguezM
Coach: Claudio Barragan

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Almeria139222410+1429
15Eldense134271319-614

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Almeria vs Eldense

  • 3 December 2025Eldense 2–1 AlmeriaCopa del Rey
  • 4 May 2025Almeria 5–0 EldenseSegunda División
  • 8 September 2024Eldense 1–0 AlmeriaSegunda División

Leading scorers: Almeria and Eldense

Almeria

GoalsAssists

  • Miguel de la Fuente81

Eldense

No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Almeria beat Eldense 3–0. The model had made a win for Almeria its most likely outcome, at 84%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–1. The goals: F. Bonini 15' for Almeria, S. Dzodic 45' for Almeria, N. Melamed 45' for Almeria.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.