Casa Pia vs Benfica Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Casa Pia 0-7 Benfica.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Casa Pia, 24% draw, 35% Benfica — fair odds of 2.44, 4.17 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Casa Pia at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Casa Pia vs Benfica
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31A. GomesG
- 18A. GeraldesD
- 4J. GoulartD
- 43D. SousaD
- 5A. ConteD
- 24S. PerezM
- 80L. OforiM
- 8GabiM
- 19K. PrietoF
- 9H. AraujoF
- 10RochinhaF
- 22D. AzevedoG
- 95I. MandicG
- 27Kaique RochaD
- 75P. RosasD
- 3KalyD
- 11R. BlancoM
- 16S. CluaM
- 59A. DafeM
- 13K. OsundinaF
- 24S. SoaresG
- 6A. BahD
- 44T. AraujoD
- 2C. LengletD
- 26S. DahlD
- 18L. BarreiroM
- 5E. BarrenecheaM
- 27Rafa SilvaM
- 10G. SudakovM
- 25G. PrestianniM
- 14V. PavlidisF
- 1A. TrubinG
- 58D. BanjaquiD
- 62J. NetoD
- 13J. KaminskiM
- 16ManuM
- 33Gabriel Indio
- 20R. RiosM
- 73M. FigueiredoM
- 22J. DuranF
Form going into Casa Pia vs Benfica
Casa Pia
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Maritimo8 August 2026
Benfica
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Heart of Midlothian13 August 2026
- D2-2Academico Viseu9 August 2026
- W6-1Heart of Midlothian6 August 2026
- W5-0FC St. Gallen30 July 2026
- L1-2away to FC St. Gallen23 July 2026
What these results say
- Benfica scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Benfica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Benfica had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Casa Pia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 8 |
| 2 | Benfica | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 10 | +20 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Casa Pia vs Benfica
- 6 April 2026Casa Pia 1–1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 9 November 2025Benfica 2–2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 25 January 2025Casa Pia 3–1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 17 August 2024Benfica 3–0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 17 March 2024Casa Pia 0–1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Casa Pia and Benfica
Casa Pia
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Benfica
GoalsAssists
- V. Pavlidis113
- G. Prestianni74
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Benfica won 7–0 at Casa Pia. The model had leaned towards a win for Casa Pia at 41% and given a win for Benfica 35%. The goals: G. Prestianni 3' for Benfica, Rafa Silva 14' for Benfica, V. Pavlidis 47' for Benfica, V. Pavlidis 49' for Benfica, V. Pavlidis 54' for Benfica, L. Ofori (own goal) 58' for Benfica, J. Duran 61' for Benfica. Sent off: Kaly (Casa Pia) 90+2'. On expected goals it finished 0.12–3.04.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.