Casa Pia
vs
Benfica
Primeira Liga prediction
The model makes it 38% Casa Pia, 24% draw, 38% Benfica — fair odds of 2.63, 4.17 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Casa Pia 1.65, Benfica 1.65.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Casa Pia
- L0-1away to Maritimo8 August 2026
Benfica
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where they stand. Benfica has not started the league season yet. Full tables
Head-to-head: Casa Pia vs Benfica
- 6 April 2026Casa Pia 1–1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 9 November 2025Benfica 2–2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 25 January 2025Casa Pia 3–1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 17 August 2024Benfica 3–0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- 17 March 2024Casa Pia 0–1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- 28 October 2023Benfica 1–1 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Casa Pia carry a model rating of 6.95 against 7.1 for Benfica. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Casa Pia L; Benfica L-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.65 goals for Casa Pia and 1.65 for Benfica. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Casa Pia rate 0.85 in attack and 0.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Benfica rate 1.59 and 1.03.
That points to 64% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Casa Pia the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Casa Pia against 1.65 for Benfica. Casa Pia's attack/defence rating is 0.85/0.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.59/1.03 for Benfica.