Zalaegerszegi TE
vs
Ferencvarosi TC
NB I prediction
The model makes it 18% Zalaegerszegi TE, 33% draw, 49% Ferencvarosi TC — fair odds of 5.56, 3.03 and 2.04. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (20%).
Expected goals: Zalaegerszegi TE 0.58, Ferencvarosi TC 1.16.
Both teams to score: 31%. Over 2.5 goals: 25%, under 2.5: 75%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Zalaegerszegi TE
- L0-5away to Vasas8 August 2026
- W5-2Paks3 August 2026
- L0-3away to MTK Budapest27 July 2026
Ferencvarosi TC
- D0-0Vasas2 August 2026
- L2-4away to Paks26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 |
| 11 | Ferencvarosi TC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Zalaegerszegi TE
- Calderón2 goals
Ferencvarosi TC
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Zalaegerszegi TE carry a model rating of 6 against 6.62 for Ferencvarosi TC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Zalaegerszegi TE L-W-L; Ferencvarosi TC L-D.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.58 goals for Zalaegerszegi TE and 1.16 for Ferencvarosi TC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zalaegerszegi TE rate 0.36 in attack and 2.02 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ferencvarosi TC rate 0.41 and 0.85.
That points to 25% for over two and a half goals and 31% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-1 (20%), 0-0 (18%), 1-1 (12%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Zalaegerszegi TE, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ferencvarosi TC the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.58 expected goals for Zalaegerszegi TE against 1.16 for Ferencvarosi TC. Zalaegerszegi TE's attack/defence rating is 0.36/2.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/0.85 for Ferencvarosi TC.