16 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

Eibar vs Tenerife Segunda División prediction & result

Estadio Municipal de Ipurua, Eibar
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Eibar 1-3 Tenerife.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Eibar, 18% draw, 50% Tenerife — fair odds of 3.13, 5.56 and 2.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Tenerife at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Eibar0%Draw1%Tenerife99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
⚽Enricassist: N. Gil
⚽J. Bautistaassist: J. Magunazelaia Argoitia
35'
44'
⚽J. Alvarez
56'
🔁N. Lopezout: I. Chapela
🔁J. Magunazelaia Argoitiaout: A. Garrido
61'
🔁Pejinoout: E. Perez
61'
61'
🔁Enricout: M. Pecar
61'
🔁Juanjoout: Fabricio
🔁A. Madariagaout: I. Gil
71'
71'
🔁N. Gilout: A. Krdzalic
71'
🔁V. Morenoout: B. Diocou
74'
⚽I. Chapelaassist: A. Krdzalic
🔁J. Bernatout: Javier Marton
81'
🔁A. Aresout: J. Guruzeta
81'
89'
Jesús Álvarez

Match stats — Eibar vs Tenerife

65%Possession35%
16Shots7
5On target4
7Corners3
1.64xG0.67

Goals against chances

Eibar1 from 1.64 xGless than the chances were worth
Tenerife3 from 0.67 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Eibar 4-2-3-1
  • 13J. MagunagoitiaG
  • 2S. CuberoD
  • 18M. AranaD
  • 23A. ArbillaD
  • 24J. BernatD
  • 6S. AlvarezM
  • 8A. MadariagaM
  • 17PejinoM
  • 11J. Magunazelaia ArgoitiaM
  • 7A. AresM
  • 9J. BautistaF
Substitutes
  • 1L. LopezG
  • 22A. RodriguezD
  • 4U. ElgezabalD
  • 15JairD
  • 21I. GilM
  • 30A. GarridoM
  • 28L. NunezM
  • 20Javier MartonF
  • 32C. Lumbreras
Coach: Jokin Aranbarri
Tenerife 4-2-3-1
  • 1D. MartinG
  • 5J. MorenoD
  • 27N. ViereckD
  • 4J. LeonD
  • 2D. RodriguezD
  • 6Juanjo
  • 16J. AlvarezM
  • 11N. LopezM
  • 10N. GilM
  • 8V. MorenoM
  • 18EnricF
Substitutes
  • 40G. Lozano de Vuyst
  • 19C. AlvarezD
  • 20M. PittonM
  • 7M. PecarM
  • 23A. Krdzalic
  • 15FabricioM
  • 29D. FernandezM
  • 24I. ChapelaF
  • 22G. RanosF
Coach: Alvaro Cervera

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Eibar127232114+723
14Tenerife123631517-215

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Eibar vs Tenerife

  • 27 April 2025Tenerife 1–1 EibarSegunda División
  • 14 September 2024Eibar 1–0 TenerifeSegunda División
  • 7 April 2024Tenerife 2–1 EibarSegunda División
  • 30 September 2023Eibar 3–0 TenerifeSegunda División
  • 4 March 2023Tenerife 0–1 EibarSegunda División

Leading scorers: Eibar and Tenerife

Eibar

GoalsAssists

  • Iván Gil41

Tenerife

GoalsAssists

  • Enric Gallego81

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Tenerife won 3–1 at Eibar. The model had made a win for Tenerife its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Enric 7' for Tenerife, J. Bautista 35' for Eibar, J. Alvarez 44' for Tenerife, I. Chapela 74' for Tenerife. On expected goals it finished 1.64–0.67.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.