Deportivo La Coruna
vs
Elche
La Liga prediction
The model makes it 76% Deportivo La Coruna, 14% draw, 10% Elche — fair odds of 1.32, 7.14 and 10.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Deportivo La Coruna 3.08, Elche 1.12.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%, under 2.5: 21%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Deportivo La Coruna vs Elche
- 1 June 2025Deportivo La Coruna 0–4 ElcheSegunda División
- 13 October 2024Elche 0–0 Deportivo La CorunaSegunda División
- 23 June 2020Elche 0–1 Deportivo La CorunaSegunda División
- 10 November 2019Deportivo La Coruna 1–3 ElcheSegunda División
- 4 June 2019Elche 0–0 Deportivo La CorunaSegunda División
- 12 October 2018Deportivo La Coruna 4–0 ElcheSegunda División
The two sides
Deportivo La Coruna carry a model rating of 7.16 against 6.78 for Elche. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.08 goals for Deportivo La Coruna and 1.12 for Elche. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo La Coruna rate 1.77 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Elche rate 0.77 and 0.92.
That points to 79% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 3-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo La Coruna the highest probability at 76%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.08 expected goals for Deportivo La Coruna against 1.12 for Elche. Deportivo La Coruna's attack/defence rating is 1.77/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/0.92 for Elche.