16 August 2026, 19:30 UTC

Las Palmas vs Albacete Segunda División prediction & result

Estadio de Gran Canaria, Las Palmas
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Las Palmas 2-1 Albacete.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Las Palmas, 24% draw, 44% Albacete — fair odds of 3.13, 4.17 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Albacete at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Las Palmas4%Draw91%Albacete5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Marvinout: G. Bonfanti
13'
18'
Sergio Ortuño
⚽Jeseassist: T. Miyashiro
21'
Kirian Rodríguez
23'
30'
Victor San Bartolome
53'
🔁S. Obengout: T. Ingles
🔁S. Ruizout: E. Loiodice
60'
🔁Jeseout: R. Cruz
60'
70'
🔁C. Nevaout: D. Bernabeu
71'
🔁J. Vallejoout: R. Gonzalez
79'
🔁F. Gamezout: Lorenzo
79'
🔁A. Rubioout: M. Soberon
85'
⚽V. San Bartolome
🔁M. Fusterout: E. Romero
86'
🔁J. Betancorout: S. Ramirez
86'
⚽S. Ramirezassist: E. Romero
90'

Match stats — Las Palmas vs Albacete

66%Possession34%
12Shots12
4On target4
3Corners6
1.18xG1.53

Goals against chances

Las Palmas2 from 1.18 xGmore than the chances were worth
Albacete1 from 1.53 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Las Palmas 4-2-3-1
  • 13J. CaroG
  • 2MarvinD
  • 4Alex SuarezD
  • 15J. HerzogD
  • 27V. PezzolesiD
  • 8S. RuizM
  • 20K. RodriguezM
  • 11T. MiyashiroM
  • 14M. FusterM
  • 7J. BetancorM
  • 10JeseF
Substitutes
  • 1D. HorkasG
  • 21G. BonfantiD
  • 23A. RodriguezD
  • 33V. AlegreD
  • 12E. LoiodiceM
  • 6I. GonzalezM
  • 16M. AcimovicM
  • 26A. BassingaM
  • 30I. MedinaF
Coach: Ruben de la Barrera
Albacete 3-5-2
  • 13D. MarinoG
  • 24J. VallejoD
  • 23PepeD
  • 22L. LopezD
  • 15F. GamezM
  • 17J. CorpasM
  • 18S. OrtunoM
  • 14V. San Bartolome
  • 21C. NevaM
  • 19A. RubioF
  • 20S. ObengF
Substitutes
  • 1C. MarinG
  • 2LorenzoD
  • 5J. MorenoD
  • 27D. BernabeuD
  • 28A. VelillaD
  • 38D. RodriguezM
  • 10R. GonzalezF
  • 33T. Ingles
  • 9M. SoberonF
Coach: Alberto Gonzalez

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Las Palmas136251921-220
21Albacete133191324-1110

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Las Palmas vs Albacete

  • 16 March 2026Albacete 2–1 Las PalmasSegunda División
  • 21 November 2025Las Palmas 2–1 AlbaceteSegunda División
  • 3 April 2023Albacete 1–2 Las PalmasSegunda División
  • 11 December 2022Las Palmas 1–2 AlbaceteSegunda División
  • 24 May 2021Las Palmas 3–2 AlbaceteSegunda División

Leading scorers: Las Palmas and Albacete

Las Palmas

GoalsAssists

  • Jesé41

Albacete

No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Las Palmas beat Albacete 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Albacete at 44% and given a win for Las Palmas 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Jese 21' for Las Palmas, V. San Bartolome 85' for Albacete, S. Ramirez 90' for Las Palmas. On expected goals it finished 1.18–1.53.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.