17 August 2026, 15:00 UTC

Gnistan vs Ilves Finnish Premier League prediction & result

Markku.fi Areena, Helsinki
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Gnistan 3-2 Ilves.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Gnistan, 19% draw, 49% Ilves — fair odds of 3.13, 5.26 and 2.04.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ilves at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Sauli Väisänen (OG)
4'
14'
⚽Teemu Hytönenassist: Oliver Pettersson
Bogdan Milovanov
24'
41'
⚽Anton Popovitchassist: Kalle Wallius
43'
Sauli Väisänen
⚽Adeleke Akinyemiassist: Gabriel Europaeus
45'
🔁Saku Ylätupaout: Artur Atarah
46'
56'
Sauli Väisänen
56'
Sauli Väisänen
62'
🔁Jesse Kiloout: Yiandro Raap
62'
🔁Yacouba Sackoout: Stanislav Baranov
🔁Adeleke Akinyemiout: Danny Pérez
63'
78'
🔁Anton Popovitchout: Roope Riski
78'
🔁Oliver Petterssonout: Abdoul Goudouss Bamba
⚽Bogdan Milovanov
81'
🔁Ruxiout: Sergei Eremenko
86'
🔁Roman Eremenkoout: Joakim Latonen
86'
89'
🔁Tatu Miettunenout: Maksim Stjopin
Danny Pérez
90+2'
90+3'
Jardell Kanga
🔁Artur Atarahout: Juhani Ojala
90'

Line-ups

Gnistan
  • 95Matej JurickaG
  • 24Rachide GnanouD
  • 67Ayo ObileyeD
  • 3RuxiD
  • 19Bogdan MilovanovD
  • 31Adam JouhiM
  • 15Gabriel EuropaeusM
  • 12Edmund Arko-MensahD
  • 23Saku YlätupaM
  • 17Adeleke AkinyemiF
  • 26Roman EremenkoF
Substitutes
  • 7Artur AtarahF
  • 11Danny PérezF
  • 14Sergei EremenkoM
  • 10Joakim LatonenF
  • 40Juhani OjalaD
  • 13Oskar LyberopoulosG
  • 33Samuel HeikariD
  • 27Otto HannulaM
Coach: Jussi Leppalahti
Ilves
  • 12Faris KrkalićG
  • 16Tatu MiettunenD
  • 5Sauli VäisänenD
  • 3Matias RaleD
  • 4Oliver PetterssonD
  • 33Yacouba SackoM
  • 14Anton PopovitchM
  • 13Kalle WalliusM
  • 30Jardell KangaM
  • 9Teemu HytönenF
  • 28Jesse KiloM
Substitutes
  • 6Yiandro RaapD
  • 17Stanislav BaranovM
  • 19Abdoul Goudouss BambaD
  • 10Roope RiskiF
  • 8Maksim StjopinM
  • 1Otso VirtanenG
  • 24Ville KumpuD
  • 15Lauri Ala-MyllymäkiM
  • 45Elias TamminenF
Coach: Joni Lehtonen

Form going into Gnistan vs Ilves

Gnistan

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to SJK7 August 2026

Ilves

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1HNK Rijeka13 August 2026
  • W2-0Mariehamn9 August 2026
  • L0-1away to HNK Rijeka6 August 2026
  • W1-0Stjarnan30 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Stjarnan23 July 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 5 matches for Ilves had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Gnistan vs Ilves

  • 23 May 2026Ilves 2–0 GnistanFinnish Premier League
  • 24 January 2026Ilves 1–0 GnistanFriendlies Clubs
  • 25 October 2025Gnistan 1–3 IlvesFinnish Premier League
  • 23 September 2025Ilves 3–2 GnistanFinnish Premier League
  • 4 August 2025Ilves 2–2 GnistanFinnish Premier League

Leading scorers: Gnistan and Ilves

Gnistan

GoalsAssists

  • A. Akinyemi50
  • A. Jouhi31

Ilves

GoalsAssists

  • T. Hytönen91
  • J. Kanga43
  • E. Tamminen42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Gnistan beat Ilves 3–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Ilves at 49% and given a win for Gnistan 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Sauli Väisänen (own goal) 4' for Gnistan, Teemu Hytönen 14' for Ilves, Anton Popovitch 41' for Ilves, Adeleke Akinyemi 45' for Gnistan, Bogdan Milovanov 81' for Gnistan. Sent off: Sauli Väisänen (Ilves) 56'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.