Regular Season - 9 · 13 September 2026, 12:00 UTC

Arges Pitesti vs FC Botosani Liga I prediction & result

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Final score: Arges Pitesti 1-1 FC Botosani.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Arges Pitesti, 31% draw, 34% FC Botosani — fair odds of 2.86, 3.23 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Arges Pitesti 1.11, FC Botosani 1.08.

Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.

Model confidence: Low.

Published · updated

Model insights: Arges Pitesti vs FC Botosani

45%
Both teams to score
37%
Over 2.5 goals
63%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 14%0-0 12%1-0 12%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Arges Pitesti at 35% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Arges Pitesti4%Draw94%FC Botosani2%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Gabriel Charpentierout: Silviu Balaure
19'
41'
Narcis Ilas
55'
Brian Bayeye
57'
🔁Roland Idowuout: Gabriel Gama
⚽Taylor Luvamboassist: Yanis Pirvu
60'
68'
Narcis Ilas
73'
🔁Andrei Dumiterout: Mykola Kovtalyuk
73'
🔁Hervin Ongendaout: Jovan Marković
73'
🔁Zoran Mitrovout: Ştefan Bodişteanu
Dorinel·Oancea
76'
83'
Jovan Marković
🔁Dorinel·Oanceaout: Claudiu Micovschi
84'
🔁Yanis Pirvuout: Mario Tudose
84'
86'
⚽Gabriel Gamaassist: Lucas de Vega Lima

Match stats — Arges Pitesti vs FC Botosani

34%Possession66%
8Shots5
1On target3
2Corners2

Line-ups

Arges Pitesti 3-1-4-2
  • 34C. CăbuzG
  • 2A. TofanD
  • 3L. SadriuD
  • 23F. BorţaD
  • 69O. AdefunyibomiM
  • 26D. OanceaM
  • 11Y. PîrvuM
  • 22V. RaţăM
  • 25Tiago GonçalvesM
  • 9G. CharpentierF
  • 92T. LuvamboF
Substitutes
  • 20P. DulceaM
  • 96S. BalaureD
  • 7M. IdowuF
  • 19C. MicovschiF
  • 16I. RădescuM
  • 18Daniel SanduF
  • 6M. TudoseD
  • 31M. SerbanG
  • 14Andreas BalasaM
Coach: Bogdan Andone
FC Botosani 4-3-3
  • 99G. AnestisG
  • 2B. BayeyeD
  • 4A. MironD
  • 94M. DiarraD
  • 73N. IlașD
  • 21Lucas de VegaM
  • 3C. PetroM
  • 26H. OngendaM
  • 8R. IdowuF
  • 41A. DumiterF
  • 11Z. MitrovF
Substitutes
  • 77Gama GabrielM
  • 27Ionuț Cristian GurăuG
  • 44R. SadikuD
  • 5R. CreţD
  • 90Mario PredaF
  • 67E. PapaM
  • 9J. MarkovićF
  • 7S. MailatF
  • 22M. KovtalyukF
Coach: M. Croitoru

Form going into Arges Pitesti vs FC Botosani

Arges Pitesti

  • L0-1away to FC Voluntari7 September 2026
  • L0-1Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe29 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Oțelul24 August 2026
  • D1-1Farul Constanta14 August 2026

FC Botosani

  • W5-0Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe5 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Farul Constanta30 August 2026
  • W1-0Csikszereda24 August 2026
  • L2-3away to FCSB17 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Liga I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Arges Pitesti932457-211
9FC Botosani9252139+411

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Arges Pitesti vs FC Botosani

  • 13 September 2026Arges Pitesti 1–1 FC BotosaniLiga I
  • 13 December 2025Arges Pitesti 0–0 FC BotosaniLiga I
  • 11 August 2025FC Botosani 3–1 Arges PitestiLiga I
  • 4 December 2024Arges Pitesti 0–3 FC BotosaniCupa României
  • 9 April 2023FC Botosani 1–0 Arges PitestiLiga I
  • 29 January 2023Arges Pitesti 0–2 FC BotosaniLiga I

Leading scorers: Arges Pitesti and FC Botosani

Arges Pitesti

  • R. Moldoveanu3 goals

FC Botosani

  • A. Dumiter6 goals
  • S. Mailat3 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 1.11 goals for Arges Pitesti and 1.08 for FC Botosani; the game produced 1 and 1.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Taylor Luvambo 60' (Arges Pitesti), Gabriel Gama 86' (FC Botosani).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Arges Pitesti the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Arges Pitesti against 1.08 for FC Botosani. Arges Pitesti's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.37 for FC Botosani.