Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Sporting Gijon 3-2 Celta de Vigo II.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Sporting Gijon, 29% draw, 27% Celta de Vigo II — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Sporting Gijon at 44%: of 2,664 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.9% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II
Line-ups
- 1Rubén YáñezG
- 24Aimar DuñabeitiaD
- 23Jorge SáenzD
- 44Andrés CuencaD
- 2Guille RosasM
- 8M. RodriguezM
- 14Álex CorrederaM
- 3Pablo GarcíaM
- 27Enol PrendesF
- 17Antonio CasasF
- 7Gaspar CamposF
- 13AranaG
- 35C. FerreresM
- 4E. GularteD
- 26Iker MartínezD
- 5Diego SánchezD
- 16A. SarcoF
- 15Pablo VázquezD
- 34Diego Matabuena ÁlvarezM
- 28M. CondeF
- 1Coke CarrilloG
- 2P. GavianD
- 3K. RibesD
- 20A. RodriguezD
- 23G. MillerM
- 16Adrià CapdevilaM
- 6P. MeixusM
- 18Joel LópezM
- 15A. KibetF
- 9A. MarinF
- 10O. MarcosF
- 13Caio BaroneG
- 19A. Davila OutereloF
- 11Ángel ArcosF
- 14Jan OliverasD
- 21Alexis OlmedoD
- 28Vladimir Henrique SilvaF
- 25M. GonzalezG
- 26Jorge Pérez-Lafuente ReyF
- 27Noah Rodríguez GuallarM
Form going into Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II
Sporting Gijon
All competitions we cover
- L0-2away to Oviedo27 September 2026
- W3-1away to FC Andorra19 September 2026
- L0-1Eldense13 September 2026
- L0-2Girona5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Tenerife28 August 2026
Celta de Vigo II
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Sabadell26 September 2026
- L0-2away to Almeria20 September 2026
- L0-4Eibar14 September 2026
- W2-0away to AD Ceuta FC5 September 2026
- L1-2Castellón31 August 2026
What these results say
- Sporting Gijon conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sporting Gijon had two goals or fewer.
- Celta de Vigo II failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Celta de Vigo II conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sporting Gijon | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 22 |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo II | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Sporting Gijon and Celta de Vigo II
Sporting Gijon
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Celta de Vigo II
GoalsAssists
- A. Marin71
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sporting Gijon beat Celta de Vigo II 3–2. The model had made a win for Sporting Gijon its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Óscar Marcos 8' for Celta de Vigo II, Antonio Manuel Casas Marin 33' for Sporting Gijon, Antonio Manuel Casas Marin 45+11' for Sporting Gijon, Guillermo Rosas 60' for Sporting Gijon, Aldrine Kibet 78' for Celta de Vigo II. Sent off: Pablo González Meixús (Celta de Vigo II) 45+9'.
How the call on Sporting Gijon v Celta de Vigo II has moved
First published on 20 Sep at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 44% / 29% / 27%: the biggest move is Sporting Gijon's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Sporting Gijon win44%▲ +3
- Draw29%=
- Celta de Vigo II win27%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.