Sporting Gijon
vs
Celta de Vigo II
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Sporting Gijon 1–0 Celta de Vigo II
The model makes it 41% Sporting Gijon, 29% draw, 30% Celta de Vigo II — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sporting Gijon 1.56, Celta de Vigo II 1.16.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Sporting Gijon wins, grey are draws, red are Celta de Vigo II wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting Gijon at 41% here. Across 2687 settled matches, 1231 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II
Sporting Gijon
- W3-1away to FC Andorra19 September 2026
- L0-1Eldense13 September 2026
- L0-2Girona5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Tenerife28 August 2026
- W1-0Burgos23 August 2026
Celta de Vigo II
- L0-4Eibar14 September 2026
- W2-0away to AD Ceuta FC5 September 2026
- L1-2Castellón31 August 2026
- W4-2FC Andorra24 August 2026
- D0-0away to Cadiz15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sporting Gijon | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 10 |
| 15 | Celta de Vigo II | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Sporting Gijon and Celta de Vigo II
Sporting Gijon
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Celta de Vigo II
- B. Somuah2 goals
- A. Marin2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sporting Gijon carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.49 for Celta de Vigo II. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.56 goals for Sporting Gijon and 1.16 for Celta de Vigo II. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sporting Gijon rate 0.66 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Celta de Vigo II rate 0.71 and 1.45.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sporting Gijon a 1.6% chance of the title and Celta de Vigo II 0.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1256 correct results out of 2687 settled predictions (47%), with 254 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting Gijon the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Sporting Gijon against 1.16 for Celta de Vigo II. Sporting Gijon's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.45 for Celta de Vigo II.