VVV Venlo
vs
Roda
Eerste Divisie prediction
Our model says: VVV Venlo 1–0 Roda
The model makes it 39% VVV Venlo, 32% draw, 29% Roda — fair odds of 2.56, 3.13 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: VVV Venlo 1.21, Roda 0.91.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- VVV Venlo are 4th on 15 points from 8 games; Roda are 5th on 15 points from 8 games — Eerste Divisie, Eerste Divisie: Regular season.
- VVV Venlo have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to FC Volendam.
- Roda are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Waalwijk.
- Last 6 meetings: VVV Venlo 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 26 January 2026, ended Roda 2–2 VVV Venlo.
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: VVV Venlo vs Roda
Has the model earned this number?
It puts VVV Venlo at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into VVV Venlo vs Roda
VVV Venlo
- L2-3away to FC Volendam26 September 2026
- W3-1away to Jong Utrecht18 September 2026
- W3-1FC OSS11 September 2026
- L2-4away to Helmond Sport4 September 2026
- W4-0Emmen30 August 2026
Roda
- W2-0Waalwijk26 September 2026
- D0-0away to Jong Ajax18 September 2026
- W1-0Vitesse12 September 2026
- D1-1away to MVV6 September 2026
- D2-2NAC Breda28 August 2026
What these results say
- VVV Venlo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for VVV Venlo had three goals or more.
- VVV Venlo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Roda went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Roda scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Roda had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | VVV Venlo | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 15 |
| 5 | Roda | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: VVV Venlo vs Roda
- 26 January 2026Roda 2–2 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
- 24 August 2025VVV Venlo 3–1 RodaEerste Divisie
- 29 March 2025Roda 1–4 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
- 25 August 2024VVV Venlo 1–1 RodaEerste Divisie
- 7 April 2024Roda 2–1 VVV VenloEerste Divisie
- 14 October 2023VVV Venlo 1–1 RodaEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: VVV Venlo and Roda
VVV Venlo
- D. Zandbergen4 goals
Roda
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
VVV Venlo carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.42 for Roda. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for VVV Venlo and 0.91 for Roda. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
VVV Venlo rate 0.63 in attack and 1.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Roda rate 0.46 and 1.18.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives VVV Venlo a 8.1% chance of the title and Roda 4.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives VVV Venlo the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for VVV Venlo against 0.91 for Roda. VVV Venlo's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.18 for Roda.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
VVV Venlo at home · Roda away
League matches only, Eerste Divisie, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Eerste Divisie matches this season: VVV Venlo 8, Roda 8.
VVV Venlo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Roda have let in 1 there.
Roda score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); VVV Venlo have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
VVV Venlo
- at Jong Ajax9 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 37%
- vs Jong AZ16 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 45%
- at Dordrecht24 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 39%
- at MVV31 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 39%
- vs Jong PSV U216 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 46%
Roda
- vs Jong PSV U219 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 43%
- at Jong Utrecht19 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 34%
- at Almere City FC23 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 26%
- vs Jong AZ30 Oct · Eerste Divisiewin 42%
- at Heracles6 Nov · Eerste Divisiewin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.