Farense
vs
Chaves
Segunda Liga prediction
Our model says: Farense 1–0 Chaves
The model makes it 46% Farense, 28% draw, 26% Chaves — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Farense 1.76, Chaves 1.02.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Farense are 10th on 8 points from 5 games; Chaves are 16th on 4 points from 5 games — Segunda Liga.
- Farense are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-0 draw away to AVS.
- Chaves have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Feirense.
- Last 6 meetings: Chaves 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 February 2026, ended Chaves 2–0 Farense.
All Liga Portugal 2 predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Farense vs Chaves
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Farense at 46% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Farense vs Chaves
Farense
- D0-0away to AVS13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Sporting CP B30 August 2026
- D1-1Felgueiras 193224 August 2026
- W3-1away to FC Porto B16 August 2026
- W2-1Torreense9 August 2026
Chaves
- W1-0Feirense13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Felgueiras 193230 August 2026
- D2-2AVS23 August 2026
- L0-1away to Sporting CP B15 August 2026
- L1-4Academica8 August 2026
What these results say
- Farense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Farense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Farense.
- Chaves failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chaves scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chaves conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Farense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 8 |
| 16 | Chaves | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Farense vs Chaves
- 22 February 2026Chaves 2–0 FarenseSegunda Liga
- 28 September 2025Farense 0–2 ChavesSegunda Liga
- 4 February 2024Chaves 1–1 FarensePrimeira Liga
- 26 August 2023Farense 5–0 ChavesPrimeira Liga
- 30 April 2022Farense 1–2 ChavesSegunda Liga
- 18 December 2021Chaves 2–1 FarenseSegunda Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Farense carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.33 for Chaves. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.76 goals for Farense and 1.02 for Chaves. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Farense rate 0.58 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chaves rate 0.65 and 1.87.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Farense a 2.9% chance of the title and Chaves 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Farense the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Farense against 1.02 for Chaves. Farense's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.87 for Chaves.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Farense at home · Chaves away
League matches only, Segunda Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Segunda Liga matches this season: Farense 5, Chaves 5.
Farense score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Chaves have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Farense
- vs Feirense11 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 48%
- vs Penafiel24 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 37%
- at Lusitânia Lourosa1 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 29%
- vs Benfica B8 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 37%
- at Tondela15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 25%
Chaves
- at Lusitânia Lourosa11 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 25%
- vs Vizela23 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 37%
- at Benfica B31 Oct · Segunda Ligawin 22%
- vs Penafiel7 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 33%
- at Leixoes15 Nov · Segunda Ligawin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.