Las Palmas vs Valladolid Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Las Palmas 2-2 Valladolid.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Las Palmas, 29% draw, 24% Valladolid — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Las Palmas at 47%: of 2,664 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.9% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Las Palmas vs Valladolid
Line-ups
- 13José CaroG
- 25Valentín PezzolesiD
- 4Álex SuárezD
- 21G. BonfantiD
- 23A. RodriguezD
- 11T. MiyashiroM
- 12E. LoiodiceM
- 20Kirian RodríguezM
- 24Iván JaimeM
- 10JeséF
- 29Elías RomeroF
- 44Adrián VázquezD
- 14Manu FusterM
- 7Jefté BetancorF
- 26A. BassingaM
- 16Mateo AcimovicM
- 30I. MedinaF
- 43Eduard Mohedano SerranoG
- 3N. OpokuD
- 42Rachid Saiah BouchaibaD
- 1Álvaro AcevesG
- 14Iván AlejoD
- 15Pablo TomeoD
- 4David TorresD
- 27Iván GarrielD
- 24S. JurićM
- 6M. LachuerM
- 30Víctor FernándezM
- 21J. PonceauM
- 19Adrian ArnuncioF
- 9Juanmi LatasaF
- 11Yeray CabanzónF
- 34Brain ChineduF
- 18ClercD
- 22K. de RooijF
- 2TrilliD
- 8T. OjedaM
- 5Ramón MartínezD
- 13Dani MartínG
- 26L. LavagninoG
Form going into Las Palmas vs Valladolid
Las Palmas
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Eibar27 September 2026
- L1-2Burgos20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cadiz12 September 2026
- D0-0Leganes4 September 2026
- L2-5away to Girona29 August 2026
Valladolid
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Cordoba27 September 2026
- D1-1away to AD Ceuta FC20 September 2026
- L0-3Oviedo13 September 2026
- W1-0FC Andorra5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Cadiz30 August 2026
What these results say
- Las Palmas failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Las Palmas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Valladolid scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Valladolid conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Las Palmas | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 17 |
| 13 | Valladolid | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Las Palmas vs Valladolid
- 3 May 2026Las Palmas 2–1 ValladolidSegunda División
- 14 November 2025Valladolid 0–1 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 28 February 2025Valladolid 1–1 Las PalmasLa Liga
- 7 December 2024Las Palmas 2–1 ValladolidLa Liga
- 19 March 2022Valladolid 0–1 Las PalmasSegunda División
Leading scorers: Las Palmas and Valladolid
Las Palmas
GoalsAssists
- Jesé41
Valladolid
GoalsAssists
- Adrian Arnuncio51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Las Palmas and Valladolid drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Las Palmas at 47% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Valentín Alejandro Pezzolesi 5' for Las Palmas, Juan Miguel Latasa 10' for Valladolid, Julien Ponceau 26' for Valladolid, Elías Romero 54' for Las Palmas.
How the call on Las Palmas v Valladolid has moved
First published on 20 Sep at 43% / 29% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 47% / 29% / 24%: the biggest move is Las Palmas's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Las Palmas win47%▲ +4
- Draw29%=
- Valladolid win24%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.