Deportivo Pasto
vs
Fortaleza FC
Primera A prediction
Our model says: Deportivo Pasto 1–0 Fortaleza FC
The model makes it 43% Deportivo Pasto, 30% draw, 27% Fortaleza FC — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Deportivo Pasto 1.53, Fortaleza FC 0.97.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportivo Pasto at 43% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC
Deportivo Pasto
- W1-0Once Caldas20 September 2026
- W1-0away to America de Cali15 September 2026
- D2-2away to Cucuta5 September 2026
- L1-2Deportivo Pereira31 August 2026
- D1-1away to Internacional de Bogota28 August 2026
Fortaleza FC
- L1-4Junior20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Jaguares11 September 2026
- D2-2away to Santa Fe5 September 2026
- L1-2Once Caldas2 September 2026
- D0-0away to Chico26 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Deportivo Pasto | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 8 |
| 14 | Fortaleza FC | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC
- 25 March 2026Fortaleza FC 1–2 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 24 October 2025Fortaleza FC 2–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 4 May 2025Deportivo Pasto 1–0 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
- 15 September 2024Fortaleza FC 0–0 Deportivo PastoPrimera A
- 5 March 2024Deportivo Pasto 1–0 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
- 6 November 2016Deportivo Pasto 1–0 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
Leading scorers: Deportivo Pasto and Fortaleza FC
Deportivo Pasto
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Fortaleza FC
- A. Arroyo9 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Deportivo Pasto carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.34 for Fortaleza FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for Deportivo Pasto and 0.97 for Fortaleza FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Deportivo Pasto rate 0.63 in attack and 1.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fortaleza FC rate 0.60 and 1.67.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Fortaleza FC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Deportivo Pasto the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Deportivo Pasto against 0.97 for Fortaleza FC. Deportivo Pasto's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.67 for Fortaleza FC.