Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Castellón 1-1 AD Ceuta FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Castellón, 23% draw, 16% AD Ceuta FC — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Castellón at 61%: of 1,458 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.2% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC
Line-ups
- 13R. MatthysG
- 11F. CeccheriniD
- 5Alberto JiménezD
- 4A. SienraD
- 18Pablo SantiagoM
- 8BarriM
- 21Álvaro MartínM
- 14Iñigo CórdobaM
- 10Israel SueroM
- 16A. JakobsenM
- 23Varo GarcíaF
- 30M. WillmannD
- 7Raúl SánchezF
- 35Sergi TornerG
- 31Óscar Albiol GinerF
- 12Lucas AlcázarD
- 19Hamza BellariF
- 20Martín CondeD
- 33Miguel Ferrer AlarteF
- 27A. GalaM
- 13Guille VallejoG
- 4Albert CaparrósD
- 6Carlos HernándezD
- 34D. MasD
- 7Alejandro Camacho RamírezM
- 15JoaquínM
- 32Chidiebere Gabriel OkoroM
- 3José MatosM
- 8KukiM
- 22K. KonéM
- 9Jordi EscobarF
- 26Arick BetancourtM
- 14Y. BodigerM
- 28Abraham Bueno EspinosaM
- 36José Miguel Gómez BaporiD
- 10Marino IllescasM
- 27U. KonareF
- 1Pedro LópezG
- 20Álex MeléndezM
- 17Mawuli MensahM
Form going into Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC
Castellón
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Leganes28 September 2026
- W5-0Tenerife19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Girona12 September 2026
- W2-0Albacete6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Celta de Vigo II31 August 2026
AD Ceuta FC
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Real Sociedad II26 September 2026
- D1-1Valladolid20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Burgos11 September 2026
- L0-2Celta de Vigo II5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Mallorca30 August 2026
What these results say
- Castellón won every one of these 5 matches.
- Castellón scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- AD Ceuta FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- AD Ceuta FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 5 | +18 | 27 |
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 27 | -17 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC
- 9 May 2026AD Ceuta FC 1–1 CastellónSegunda División
- 14 September 2025Castellón 3–3 AD Ceuta FCSegunda División
- 11 February 2024Castellón 2–2 AD Ceuta FCPrimera División RFEF - Group 2
- 15 October 2023AD Ceuta FC 1–3 CastellónPrimera División RFEF - Group 2
Leading scorers: Castellón and AD Ceuta FC
Castellón
GoalsAssists
- Israel Suero62
- Ousmane Camara41
AD Ceuta FC
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Escobar41
- Carlos Hernández40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Castellón and AD Ceuta FC drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Castellón at 61% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Israel Suero Fernández 2' for Castellón, Jordi Escobar 53' for AD Ceuta FC.
How the call on Castellón v AD Ceuta FC has moved
First published on 20 Sep at 52% / 26% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 61% / 23% / 16%: the biggest move is Castellón's chance of winning, up 9 points.
- Castellón win61%▲ +9
- Draw23%▼ −3
- AD Ceuta FC win16%▼ −6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.