Castellón
vs
AD Ceuta FC
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Castellón 2–0 AD Ceuta FC
The model makes it 52% Castellón, 26% draw, 22% AD Ceuta FC — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Castellón 2.11, AD Ceuta FC 0.99.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Castellón wins, grey are draws, red are AD Ceuta FC wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Castellón at 52% here. Across 2687 settled matches, 660 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC
Castellón
- W5-0Tenerife19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Girona12 September 2026
- W2-0Albacete6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Celta de Vigo II31 August 2026
- D0-0Sabadell23 August 2026
AD Ceuta FC
- L1-3away to Burgos11 September 2026
- L0-2Celta de Vigo II5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Mallorca30 August 2026
- L0-2Las Palmas22 August 2026
- L1-5away to FC Andorra15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 16 |
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 15 | -13 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Castellón and AD Ceuta FC
Castellón
- Ousmane Camara2 goals1 assists
AD Ceuta FC
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Castellón carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.36 for AD Ceuta FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.11 goals for Castellón and 0.99 for AD Ceuta FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Castellón rate 0.74 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AD Ceuta FC rate 0.65 and 1.75.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Castellón a 29.7% chance of the title and AD Ceuta FC 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1256 correct results out of 2687 settled predictions (47%), with 254 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Castellón the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Castellón against 0.99 for AD Ceuta FC. Castellón's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.75 for AD Ceuta FC.