4 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Real Sociedad II vs Granada CF Segunda División prediction & result

Anoeta, San Sebastian
Referee: Andres Fuentes Molina, Spain
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Real Sociedad II 2-3 Granada CF.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Real Sociedad II, 28% draw, 28% Granada CF — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Real Sociedad II at 44%: of 2,664 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.9% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Real Sociedad II5%Draw91%Granada CF4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
Diego Hormigo
⚽Gorka Gorosabelassist: Lander Astiazarán
28'
⚽Gorka Carrera Zarranzassist: Dani Diaz
29'
35'
Benedikt Gimber
45'
🔁Chinaza Onouhaout: Sergio Rodelas Pintor
45'
🔁Diego Hormigoout: Pedro Alemañ Serna
45'
🔁Benedikt Gimberout: Mario Jiménez Gambín
45'
🔁Ángelo Garcíaout: Diego Varela Pampín
Jon Garro
56'
63'
⚽José Manuel Arnáiz (pen)
•Jon Balda
64'
Jon Balda
66'
🔁Dani Diazout: Alex Lebarbier
66'
69'
⚽José Manuel Arnáiz
🔁Ibai Aguirreout: Jon Eceizabarrena
69'
🔁Iker Roperoout: Unax Larrañaga
69'
Alex Lebarbier
72'
🔁Tomy Carbonellout: Joan Oleaga
81'
🔁Iker Calderonout: Unax Agote
81'
84'
🔁José Manuel Arnáizout: Jorge Pascual
90+3'
⚽Jorge Pascual

Match stats — Real Sociedad II vs Granada CF

47%Possession53%
17Shots23
6On target5
1Corners7

Line-ups

Real Sociedad II 4-2-3-1
  • 1Aitor FragaG
  • 2Jon GarroD
  • 29Iker RoperoD
  • 15I. CalderonD
  • 3Jon BaldaD
  • 14Tomás CarbonellM
  • 8Ibai AguirreM
  • 7Dani DíazM
  • 16Gorka GorosabelM
  • 17Lander AstiazaránM
  • 18Gorka CarreraF
Substitutes
  • 21Jon EceizabarrenaM
  • 13T. FolgadoG
  • 6A. LebarbierM
  • 32Lander OlasagastiG
  • 12J. OleagaM
  • 20Sydney OsazuwaF
  • 19Javier SoroetaF
  • 26B. IsasaD
  • 38Xuban FernandezF
Coach: Ion Ansotegi
Granada CF 3-5-2
  • 1Alberto FloresG
  • 30Juan José Flores CastroD
  • 5Manu LamaD
  • 23B. GimberD
  • 18Sergio LópezM
  • 3Diego HormigoM
  • 4Rubén AlcarazM
  • 6GumbauM
  • 33A. GarciaM
  • 11José ArnáizF
  • 19Chinaza OnouhaF
Substitutes
  • 16Diego PampínD
  • 32D. RodriguezM
  • 7Sergio RodelasF
  • 10Jorge PascualF
  • 13Raúl LizoainG
  • 27M. GambinM
  • 22B. DialloD
  • 35B. DembeleD
  • 2Pau CasadesúsD
Coach: José Rojo Martín

Form going into Real Sociedad II vs Granada CF

Real Sociedad II

All competitions we cover

  • L1-3away to AD Ceuta FC26 September 2026
  • L0-1Mallorca19 September 2026
  • W3-1away to FC Andorra12 September 2026
  • D1-1Tenerife5 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Burgos31 August 2026

Granada CF

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3FC Andorra26 September 2026
  • L2-3away to Leganes20 September 2026
  • D1-1Albacete12 September 2026
  • L0-3away to Eibar6 September 2026
  • W3-1away to Cordoba30 August 2026

What these results say

  • Real Sociedad II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Real Sociedad II failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Real Sociedad II scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Granada CF conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Granada CF failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Granada CF scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Real Sociedad II123271522-711
4Granada CF127232014+623

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Real Sociedad II vs Granada CF

  • 22 March 2026Real Sociedad II 0–2 Granada CFSegunda División
  • 4 October 2025Granada CF 5–2 Real Sociedad IISegunda División

Leading scorers: Real Sociedad II and Granada CF

Real Sociedad II

No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.

Granada CF

GoalsAssists

  • Jorge Pascual40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Granada CF won 3–2 at Real Sociedad II. The model had leaned towards a win for Real Sociedad II at 44% and given a win for Granada CF 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Gorka Gorosabel 28' for Real Sociedad II, Gorka Carrera Zarranz 29' for Real Sociedad II, José Manuel Arnáiz (penalty) 63' for Granada CF, José Manuel Arnáiz 69' for Granada CF, Jorge Pascual 90+3' for Granada CF.

How the call on Real Sociedad II v Granada CF has moved

First published on 20 Sep at 40% / 28% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 44% / 28% / 28%: the biggest move is Real Sociedad II's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Real Sociedad II win44%▲ +4
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Granada CF win28%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.