1. FC Kaiserslautern
vs
SV Darmstadt 98
2. Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 41% 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 28% draw, 31% SV Darmstadt 98 — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.42, SV Darmstadt 98 1.20.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
1. FC Kaiserslautern
- D0-0Karlsruher SC15 August 2026
- D0-0away to VfL Wolfsburg8 August 2026
SV Darmstadt 98
- L0-1away to Dynamo Dresden16 August 2026
- D2-2Holstein Kiel8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
1. FC Kaiserslautern carry a model rating of 6.84 against 6.88 for SV Darmstadt 98. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): 1. FC Kaiserslautern D-D; SV Darmstadt 98 D-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 1.20 for SV Darmstadt 98. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
1. FC Kaiserslautern rate 0.78 in attack and 0.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SV Darmstadt 98 rate 1.02 and 0.96.
That points to 49% for over two and a half goals and 54% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives 1. FC Kaiserslautern the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for 1. FC Kaiserslautern against 1.2 for SV Darmstadt 98. 1. FC Kaiserslautern's attack/defence rating is 0.78/0.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.02/0.96 for SV Darmstadt 98.