Dynamo Dresden
vs
VfL Bochum
2. Bundesliga prediction
The model makes it 49% Dynamo Dresden, 27% draw, 24% VfL Bochum — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Dynamo Dresden 1.51, VfL Bochum 0.97.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Dynamo Dresden
- W1-0SV Darmstadt 9816 August 2026
- L0-3away to 1. FC Nürnberg9 August 2026
VfL Bochum
- W1-0away to Eintracht Braunschweig14 August 2026
- L0-1Hertha BSC7 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Dynamo Dresden | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 7 | VfL Bochum | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dynamo Dresden carry a model rating of 6.97 against 6.89 for VfL Bochum. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Dynamo Dresden L-W; VfL Bochum L-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Dynamo Dresden and 0.97 for VfL Bochum. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dynamo Dresden rate 0.94 in attack and 0.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; VfL Bochum rate 0.91 and 0.85.
That points to 45% for over two and a half goals and 49% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (10%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour VfL Bochum, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dynamo Dresden the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Dynamo Dresden against 0.97 for VfL Bochum. Dynamo Dresden's attack/defence rating is 0.94/0.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.91/0.85 for VfL Bochum.