5 September 2026, 18:30 UTC

Dynamo Dresden vs VfL Bochum 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion, Dresden
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Dynamo Dresden 1-2 VfL Bochum.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Dynamo Dresden, 29% draw, 30% VfL Bochum — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Dynamo Dresden at 41% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 1,425 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dynamo Dresden0%Draw5%VfL Bochum95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
Enis Çokaj
3'
⚽K. Miyoshiassist: E. Cokaj
20'
Koji Miyoshi
21'
🔁E. Cokajout: T. Meyer
25'
⚽K. Miyoshiassist: T. Meyer
32'
Gerrit Holtmann
35'
Tom Meyer
36'
Oliver Olsen
40'
Maximilian Wittek
⚽B. Bobzienassist: N. Hauptmann
41'
Alexander Rossipal
45+1'
🔁J. Lemmerout: K. Okpala
46'
46'
🔁O. Olsenout: S. Klaiber
🔁N. Rappout: T. Raschl
62'
62'
🔁G. Holtmannout: J. Steuckers
🔁A. Rossipalout: B. Ezeh
73'
🔁V. Vermeijout: K. Inanoglu
73'
78'
Jarne Steuckers
82'
🔁C. Rasmussenout: D. Hanslik
🔁N. Hauptmannout: N. Froling
89'

Match stats — Dynamo Dresden vs VfL Bochum

49%Possession51%
15Shots15
4On target6
8Corners4
1.82xG1.4

Goals against chances

Dynamo Dresden1 from 1.82 xGless than the chances were worth
VfL Bochum2 from 1.40 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Dynamo Dresden 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. SchreiberG
  • 32J. SternerD
  • 17A. MuhamedbegovicD
  • 42F. MullerD
  • 19A. RossipalD
  • 18R. WagnerM
  • 6N. RappM
  • 10J. LemmerM
  • 27N. HauptmannM
  • 20B. BobzienM
  • 9V. VermeijF
Substitutes
  • 40E. BethkeG
  • 44S. StraudiD
  • 14B. EzehD
  • 34T. NeiningerD
  • 21T. RaschlM
  • 24P. CovicM
  • 16N. FrolingF
  • 7K. OkpalaF
  • 11K. InanogluF
Coach: Thomas Stamm
VfL Bochum 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. HornG
  • 13O. OlsenD
  • 15M. SteinwenderD
  • 5K. MetsD
  • 32M. WittekD
  • 6E. CokajM
  • 24M. PannewigM
  • 7C. RasmussenM
  • 23K. MiyoshiM
  • 17G. HoltmannM
  • 33P. HofmannF
Substitutes
  • 38H. RollekeG
  • 2S. KlaiberD
  • 4Y. KarademirD
  • 28C. PatinoM
  • 34T. MeyerM
  • 10B. TazM
  • 37A. CrimaldiF
  • 19D. HanslikF
  • 14J. SteuckersF
Coach: Uwe Rosler

Form going into Dynamo Dresden vs VfL Bochum

Dynamo Dresden

  • L3-5away to 1. FC Heidenheim29 August 2026
  • W1-0SV Darmstadt 9816 August 2026

VfL Bochum

  • L0-1VfL Osnabrück28 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Eintracht Braunschweig14 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Dynamo Dresden6114814-64
9VfL Bochum621356-17

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dynamo Dresden vs VfL Bochum

  • 18 April 2026Dynamo Dresden 2–0 VfL Bochum2. Bundesliga
  • 21 November 2025VfL Bochum 1–2 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
  • 22 February 2020Dynamo Dresden 1–2 Vfl Bochum2. Bundesliga
  • 15 September 2019Vfl Bochum 2–2 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
  • 3 March 2019Dynamo Dresden 2–2 Vfl Bochum2. Bundesliga
  • 25 September 2018Vfl Bochum 0–1 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.