20 September 2026, 12:15 UTC

Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia First League prediction & result

Stadion Spartak, Varna
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Spartak Varna 0-1 Lokomotiv Sofia.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Spartak Varna, 29% draw, 25% Lokomotiv Sofia — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Spartak Varna at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
Ante Aralica
45+1'
Erol Dost
58'
⚽Angel Granchov (OG)
Angel Granchov
61'
🔁Angel Granchovout: Zakaria Tindano
62'
🔁Tomas Silvaout: Joao Lopes
62'
🔁Ahmed Ahmedovout: Okoh chidera
62'
mikhailov tsvetoslav marinov
69'
🔁boris ivanovout: Edson Martinho Silva
76'
76'
🔁Erol Dostout: kristian chachev
76'
🔁Ante Aralicaout: caruzo caue
76'
🔁Adil Taouiout: Mohamed Medfai
🔁mikhailov tsvetoslav marinovout: Tsvetelin Chunchukov
79'
83'
Mohamed Medfai
86'
Dimitar Kostadinov
86'
🔁Dimitar Kostadinovout: nikola neychev
90+3'
Ryan Bidounga

Match stats — Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia

54%Possession46%
14Shots12
4On target3
3Corners6

Line-ups

Spartak Varna 4-2-3-1
  • 23P. IlievG
  • 76David ValverdeD
  • 45J. TshitokuD
  • 44A. GranchovD
  • 2B. IvanovD
  • 19S. MajorM
  • 17T. MarinovM
  • 11Boubacar HanneF
  • 82Tomás SilvaM
  • 77A. IvanovF
  • 29A. AhmedovF
Substitutes
  • 1Pedro VictorG
  • 90C. OkohF
  • 9T. ChunchukovF
  • 80A. GomesF
  • 5D. KrastevD
  • 20D. LozevD
  • 72Vasco OliveiraD
  • 16Edson SilvaM
  • 6José Ricardo Gomes SousaM
Coach: V. Petrov
Lokomotiv Sofia 4-5-1
  • 99M. VelichkovG
  • 6EirôD
  • 91R. BidoungaD
  • 3K. KostovD
  • 14A. LyaskovD
  • 20D. KostadinovM
  • 11A. TaouiF
  • 31K. StanoevM
  • 5E. DostM
  • 7S. DelevF
  • 29A. AralicaF
Substitutes
  • 44B. KatsarovM
  • 8I. YordanovM
  • 71N. PenevF
  • 17M. PapazovF
  • 42N. NeychevM
  • 26K. MiloshevM
  • 16M. MedfaiM
  • 24A. LyubenovG
  • 22R. DaskalovD
Coach: L. Penev

Form going into Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia

Spartak Varna

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0away to Slavia Sofia13 September 2026
  • D1-1CSKA Sofia5 September 2026
  • D1-1Ludogorets30 August 2026
  • L0-6away to Levski Sofia22 August 2026
  • L0-1Septemvri Sofia17 August 2026

Lokomotiv Sofia

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2CSKA Sofia16 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Cherno More Varna11 September 2026
  • L1-2Ludogorets6 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Dunav Ruse31 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Arda Kardzhali17 August 2026

What these results say

  • Spartak Varna did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Spartak Varna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Spartak Varna had two goals or fewer.
  • Lokomotiv Sofia did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Lokomotiv Sofia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Lokomotiv Sofia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Spartak Varna144461525-1016
14Lokomotiv Sofia141671526-119

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia

  • 22 May 2026Spartak Varna 3–0 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
  • 13 February 2026Spartak Varna 2–2 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League
  • 22 August 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 0–0 Spartak VarnaFirst League
  • 28 March 2025Lokomotiv Sofia 2–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
  • 6 October 2024Spartak Varna 3–2 Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League

Leading scorers: Spartak Varna and Lokomotiv Sofia

Spartak Varna

GoalsAssists

  • Georg Stojanovski11
  • J. Tshitoku10

Lokomotiv Sofia

GoalsAssists

  • S. Delev11
  • D. Kostadinov10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lokomotiv Sofia won 1–0 at Spartak Varna. The model had leaned towards a win for Spartak Varna at 46% and given a win for Lokomotiv Sofia 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Angel Granchov (own goal) 58' for Lokomotiv Sofia.

How the call on Spartak Varna v Lokomotiv Sofia has moved

First published on 5 Sep at 40% / 29% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 13 updates, it read 46% / 29% / 25%: the biggest move is Spartak Varna's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Spartak Varna win46%▲ +6
  2. Draw29%=
  3. Lokomotiv Sofia win25%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.