20 September 2026, 14:45 UTC

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia First League prediction & result

Stadion Lokomotiv, Plovdiv
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-1 CSKA Sofia.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Lokomotiv Plovdiv, 30% draw, 44% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 3.85, 3.33 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

CSKA Sofia at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lokomotiv Plovdiv2%Draw94%CSKA Sofia4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Parvizdzhon Umarbaevassist: junior burban
10'
18'
⚽Ioannis Pittasassist: David Samuel Custódio Lima
Ryan lucas
43'
🔁D. Mrankovout: ali dalil
46'
junior burban
67'
Parvizdzhon Umarbaev
68'
74'
🔁teodor ivanovout: Leonardo Augusto dos Santos Pereira
🔁Christ Longvilleout: Ryan Leijten
75'
🔁Efe Aliout: Miha·Trdan
75'
🔁Parvizdzhon Umarbaevout: Julien Lamy
78'
83'
🔁David Samuel Custódio Limaout: Barry Cotter
85'
Barry Cotter
88'
🔁James Eto'oout: Santiago Godoy
90+3'

Match stats — Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia

32%Possession68%
9Shots11
2On target4
1Corners12

Line-ups

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. MilosavljevicG
  • 5T. PavlovM
  • 13Lucas RyanD
  • 4A. ChindrişD
  • 2Adrián CovaD
  • 12E. AliD
  • 22I. IvanovD
  • 19junior burbanF
  • 39P. UmarbayevM
  • 29Christ LongvilleF
  • 31D. MrankovF
Substitutes
  • 3D. AliF
  • 40P. ZovkoG
  • 9A. VelevF
  • 6M. TrdanM
  • 44M. PetrovićD
  • 94brito matheusD
  • 11R. LeijtenM
  • 99J. LamyF
  • 26D. Kirashki
Coach: D. Kosič
CSKA Sofia 3-5-2
  • 21F. LapoukhovG
  • 14T. IvanovD
  • 5J. GbaminM
  • 4Dinis AlmeidaD
  • 2PastorD
  • 99J. Eto'oM
  • 7M. EbongM
  • 8S. SensiM
  • 17Á. MartinoD
  • 10J. ZwartsF
  • 28I. PittasF
Substitutes
  • 19A. YordanovM
  • 11M. BrahimiF
  • 37B. CotterD
  • 25D. EvtimovG
  • 9S. GodoyF
  • 67C. ItuM
  • 6Bruno JordãoM
  • 38Léo PereiraF
  • 30P. PanayotovM
Coach: Daniel Morales

Form going into Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

All competitions we cover

  • L0-2away to Botev Plovdiv13 September 2026
  • W1-0Cherno More Varna6 September 2026
  • L0-2away to CSKA 194828 August 2026
  • L0-1Arda Kardzhali24 August 2026
  • L1-2Dunav Ruse16 August 2026

CSKA Sofia

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0away to Lokomotiv Sofia16 September 2026
  • W4-1Arda Kardzhali12 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Spartak Varna5 September 2026
  • W3-1Cherno More Varna30 August 2026
  • L0-2OFI27 August 2026

What these results say

  • Lokomotiv Plovdiv failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Lokomotiv Plovdiv conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Lokomotiv Plovdiv had two goals or fewer.
  • CSKA Sofia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • CSKA Sofia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Lokomotiv Plovdiv14338818-1012
1CSKA Sofia141040329+2334

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia

  • 20 May 2026Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–1 CSKA SofiaCup
  • 3 December 2025CSKA Sofia 2–1 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
  • 2 August 2025Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1–0 CSKA SofiaFirst League
  • 12 April 2025CSKA Sofia 2–0 Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League
  • 2 November 2024Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2–2 CSKA SofiaFirst League

Leading scorers: Lokomotiv Plovdiv and CSKA Sofia

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

No player in First League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

CSKA Sofia

GoalsAssists

  • Bruno Jordão20
  • I. Pittas10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lokomotiv Plovdiv and CSKA Sofia drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for CSKA Sofia at 44% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Parvizdzhon Umarbaev 10' for Lokomotiv Plovdiv, Ioannis Pittas 18' for CSKA Sofia.

How the call on Lokomotiv Plovdiv v CSKA Sofia has moved

First published on 5 Sep at 29% / 31% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 26% / 30% / 44%: the biggest move is CSKA Sofia's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Lokomotiv Plovdiv win26%▼ −3
  2. Draw30%▼ −1
  3. CSKA Sofia win44%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.