Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv First League prediction & result
Final score: Septemvri Sofia 0-3 Botev Plovdiv.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Septemvri Sofia, 26% draw, 39% Botev Plovdiv — fair odds of 2.86, 3.85 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Botev Plovdiv at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
Line-ups
- 12V. IvanovG
- 8B. PenchevM
- 26V. OzornwaforD
- 4M. HristovD
- 13K. ÖnaşçıM
- 5Y. BaurenskiM
- 6Pedro FerreiraM
- 29F. HerardF
- 33G. IvanovM
- 18Pedro IgorF
- 7E. RibeiroF
- 24Z. AtanasovM
- 30Viktor DobrevM
- 11A. DzhamovF
- 15P. GospodinovD
- 10N. IlievM
- 27André Filipe Rio LiberalF
- 16V. MihaylovM
- 1A. RadkovG
- 23B. StoichkovF
- 29D. NaumovG
- 82V. MendesD
- 87S. PetrovD
- 4N. SoldoD
- 27B. HeinD
- 10A. ChandarovM
- 77Lucas AraújoM
- 90S. KaluF
- 16V. VidolovM
- 19Mauro RodriguesF
- 7Alberto SalidoM
- 1H. SlavkovG
- 11S. ShopovM
- 22M. SengerD
- 17G. MilanovM
- 66C. MeottiF
- 30Franklin MascoteF
- 15B. KostovD
- 28Henrique JocúM
- 88W. ChimezieF
Form going into Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
Septemvri Sofia
First League
- L1-2away to Ludogorets14 September 2026
- L2-3Botev Vratsa4 September 2026
Botev Plovdiv
First League
- W2-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Arda Kardzhali4 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Septemvri Sofia | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 8 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
- 3 March 2026Botev Plovdiv 2–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 21 September 2025Septemvri Sofia 1–3 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 12 April 2025Botev Plovdiv 3–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 4 November 2024Septemvri Sofia 1–0 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 10 March 2023Septemvri Sofia 2–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League
Leading scorers: Septemvri Sofia and Botev Plovdiv
Septemvri Sofia
GoalsAssists
- André Filipe Rio Liberal11
- F. Herard10
- A. Dzhamov10
Botev Plovdiv
GoalsAssists
- C. Meotti10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Botev Plovdiv won 3–0 at Septemvri Sofia. The model had made a win for Botev Plovdiv its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: alberto tajero saido 26' for Botev Plovdiv, Samuel Kalu 54' for Botev Plovdiv, Samuel Kalu 75' for Botev Plovdiv. Sent off: edney ribeiro (Septemvri Sofia) 49'.
How the call on Septemvri Sofia v Botev Plovdiv has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 35% / 28% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 10 updates, it read 35% / 26% / 39%: the biggest move is Botev Plovdiv's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Septemvri Sofia win35%=
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Botev Plovdiv win39%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.