Septemvri Sofia
vs
Botev Plovdiv
First League prediction
Our model says: Septemvri Sofia 1–2 Botev Plovdiv
The model makes it 36% Septemvri Sofia, 26% draw, 38% Botev Plovdiv — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Septemvri Sofia 1.79, Botev Plovdiv 1.89.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |
| 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Septemvri Sofia wins, grey are draws, red are Botev Plovdiv wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Botev Plovdiv at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
Septemvri Sofia
- L1-2away to Ludogorets14 September 2026
- L2-3Botev Vratsa4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Slavia Sofia28 August 2026
- W1-0CSKA 194823 August 2026
- W1-0away to Spartak Varna17 August 2026
Botev Plovdiv
- W2-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv13 September 2026
- W3-2away to Arda Kardzhali4 September 2026
- L1-3Levski Sofia30 August 2026
- L0-1away to Botev Vratsa24 August 2026
- L0-2away to Ludogorets15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 8 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
- 3 March 2026Botev Plovdiv 2–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 21 September 2025Septemvri Sofia 1–3 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 12 April 2025Botev Plovdiv 3–0 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
- 4 November 2024Septemvri Sofia 1–0 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 10 March 2023Septemvri Sofia 2–1 Botev PlovdivFirst League
- 26 August 2022Botev Plovdiv 3–1 Septemvri SofiaFirst League
The two sides
Septemvri Sofia carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.39 for Botev Plovdiv. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.79 goals for Septemvri Sofia and 1.89 for Botev Plovdiv. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Septemvri Sofia rate 0.56 in attack and 2.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Botev Plovdiv rate 0.76 and 1.97.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Septemvri Sofia a 0% chance of the title and Botev Plovdiv 0.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Botev Plovdiv the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Septemvri Sofia against 1.89 for Botev Plovdiv. Septemvri Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.56/2.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.97 for Botev Plovdiv.