Manchester United vs Manchester City Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Manchester United 0-1 Manchester City.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Manchester United, 27% draw, 29% Manchester City — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Manchester United at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Manchester United vs Manchester City
Line-ups
- 1S. LammensG
- 2Diogo DalotD
- 5H. MaguireD
- 6Lisandro MartínezD
- 13P. DorguD
- 18Y. TielemansM
- 37K. MainooM
- 19B. MbeumoM
- 8Bruno FernandesM
- 9M. RashfordM
- 10Matheus CunhaF
- 26A. HeavenD
- 3N. MazraouiD
- 15L. YoroD
- 17Andrey SantosM
- 7M. MountM
- 31S. LaceyF
- 30B. ŠeškoF
- 12K. DarlowG
- 11J. ZirkzeeF
- 1G. DonnarummaG
- 27Matheus NunesD
- 6M. GuéhiD
- 3Rúben DiasD
- 24J. GvardiolD
- 17E. FernándezM
- 5E. AndersonM
- 47P. FodenM
- 10R. CherkiM
- 42A. SemenyoM
- 9E. HaalandF
- 7I. NdiayeF
- 28G. RulliG
- 37AllanF
- 82R. LewisD
- 45A. KhusanovD
- 33N. O'ReillyD
- 22Vitor NunesD
- 8M. KovačićM
- 32A. BouaddiM
Form going into Manchester United vs Manchester City
Manchester United
All competitions we cover
- W4-0Sabah FA10 September 2026
- D2-2away to Everton6 September 2026
- W5-2Ipswich30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Hull City22 August 2026
Manchester City
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to FC Porto8 September 2026
- W1-0Coventry5 September 2026
- W4-1away to Crystal Palace28 August 2026
- W2-1Bournemouth23 August 2026
What these results say
- Manchester United scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Manchester United conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Manchester United had three goals or more.
- Manchester City won every one of these 4 matches.
- Manchester City scored in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Manchester United | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 7 |
| 1 | Manchester City | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Manchester United vs Manchester City
- 17 January 2026Manchester United 2–0 Manchester CityPremier League
- 14 September 2025Manchester City 3–0 Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 6 April 2025Manchester United 0–0 Manchester CityPremier League
- 15 December 2024Manchester City 1–2 Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 10 August 2024Manchester City 1–1 Manchester UnitedCommunity Shield
Leading scorers: Manchester United and Manchester City
Manchester United
GoalsAssists
- B. Mbeumo40
- Bruno Fernandes31
Manchester City
GoalsAssists
- E. Haaland90
- R. Cherki42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Manchester City won 1–0 at Manchester United. The model had leaned towards a win for Manchester United at 44% and given a win for Manchester City 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Erling Haaland 60' for Manchester City. Sent off: Phil Foden (Manchester City) 23'.
How the call on Manchester United v Manchester City has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 28% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 44% / 27% / 29%: the biggest move is Manchester United's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Manchester United win44%▲ +2
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Manchester City win29%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.