Manchester United
vs
Manchester City
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Manchester United 0-1 Manchester City.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Manchester United, 28% draw, 29% Manchester City — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Manchester United 1.76, Manchester City 1.23.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Manchester United vs Manchester City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Manchester United at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Manchester United vs Manchester City
Line-ups
- 1S. LammensG
- 2Diogo DalotD
- 5H. MaguireD
- 6Lisandro MartínezD
- 13P. DorguD
- 18Y. TielemansM
- 37K. MainooM
- 19B. MbeumoM
- 8Bruno FernandesM
- 9M. RashfordM
- 10Matheus CunhaF
- 26A. HeavenD
- 3N. MazraouiD
- 15L. YoroD
- 17Andrey SantosM
- 7M. MountM
- 31S. LaceyF
- 30B. ŠeškoF
- 12K. DarlowG
- 11J. ZirkzeeF
- 1G. DonnarummaG
- 27Matheus NunesD
- 6M. GuéhiD
- 3Rúben DiasD
- 24J. GvardiolD
- 17E. FernándezM
- 5E. AndersonM
- 47P. FodenM
- 10R. CherkiM
- 42A. SemenyoM
- 9E. HaalandF
- 7I. NdiayeF
- 28G. RulliG
- 37AllanF
- 82R. LewisD
- 45A. KhusanovD
- 33N. O'ReillyD
- 22Vitor NunesD
- 8M. KovačićM
- 32A. BouaddiM
Form going into Manchester United vs Manchester City
Manchester United
- D2-2away to Everton6 September 2026
- W5-2Ipswich30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Hull City22 August 2026
Manchester City
- W1-0Coventry5 September 2026
- W4-1away to Crystal Palace28 August 2026
- W2-1Bournemouth23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Manchester United | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 4 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Manchester United vs Manchester City
- 13 September 2026Manchester United 0–1 Manchester CityPremier League
- 17 January 2026Manchester United 2–0 Manchester CityPremier League
- 14 September 2025Manchester City 3–0 Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 6 April 2025Manchester United 0–0 Manchester CityPremier League
- 15 December 2024Manchester City 1–2 Manchester UnitedPremier League
- 10 August 2024Manchester City 1–1 Manchester UnitedCommunity Shield
Leading scorers: Manchester United and Manchester City
Manchester United
- Bruno Fernandes3 goals1 assists
Manchester City
- E. Haaland4 goals
- R. Cherki2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.76 goals for Manchester United and 1.23 for Manchester City; the game produced 0 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Erling Haaland 60' (Manchester City).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Manchester United the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Manchester United against 1.23 for Manchester City. Manchester United's attack/defence rating is 1.57/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.01/0.69 for Manchester City.