FC Krasnodar
vs
Akron
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: FC Krasnodar 1-1 Akron.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% FC Krasnodar, 28% draw, 26% Akron — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Krasnodar 1.71, Akron 1.02.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: FC Krasnodar vs Akron
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Krasnodar at 46% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Krasnodar vs Akron
FC Krasnodar
- D2-2away to Krylia Sovetov5 September 2026
- W1-0FC Rostov29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Dinamo Makhachkala23 August 2026
- W1-0Akhmat15 August 2026
Akron
- D2-2away to FC Orenburg6 September 2026
- D2-2CSKA Moscow28 August 2026
- L0-3Krylia Sovetov23 August 2026
- D3-3away to Rodina Moskva15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Krasnodar | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 20 |
| 14 | Akron | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Krasnodar vs Akron
- 3 May 2026Akron 0–1 FC KrasnodarPremier League
- 13 September 2025FC Krasnodar 2–1 AkronPremier League
- 5 April 2025FC Krasnodar 1–0 AkronPremier League
- 21 September 2024Akron 2–5 FC KrasnodarPremier League
- 3 May 2023Krasnodar 0–0 AkronCup
Leading scorers: FC Krasnodar and Akron
FC Krasnodar
- N. Krivtsov3 goals1 assists
- Jubal3 goals
- Christian2 goals2 assists
Akron
- Gilson Benchimol3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Krasnodar carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.23 for Akron. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for FC Krasnodar and 1.02 for Akron. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Krasnodar rate 0.54 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Akron rate 0.56 and 1.95.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Krasnodar a 34.1% chance of the title and Akron 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Krasnodar the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for FC Krasnodar against 1.02 for Akron. FC Krasnodar's attack/defence rating is 0.54/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.95 for Akron.