Akhmat
vs
Dinamo Makhachkala
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Akhmat 3-2 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Akhmat, 27% draw, 27% Dinamo Makhachkala — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Akhmat 1.96, Dinamo Makhachkala 1.23.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Akhmat at 46% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala
Akhmat
- D1-1away to Rubin7 September 2026
- D3-3Krylia Sovetov29 August 2026
- W4-1FC Rostov22 August 2026
- L0-1away to FC Krasnodar15 August 2026
Dinamo Makhachkala
- W2-0Rodina Moskva6 September 2026
- L1-3away to Rubin30 August 2026
- L0-1FC Krasnodar23 August 2026
- W4-1away to Krylia Sovetov16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Akhmat | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 10 |
| 6 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala
- 10 May 2026Akhmat 1–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaPremier League
- 3 August 2025Dinamo Makhachkala 1–0 AkhmatPremier League
- 18 May 2025Akhmat 1–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaPremier League
- 16 February 2025Dinamo Makhachkala 0–1 AkhmatFriendlies Clubs
- 9 September 2024Akhmat 2–2 Dinamo MakhachkalaFriendlies Clubs
- 19 August 2024Dinamo Makhachkala 1–0 AkhmatPremier League
Leading scorers: Akhmat and Dinamo Makhachkala
Akhmat
- Egas Cacintura3 goals1 assists
- G. Melkadze3 goals
- L. Sadulaev2 goals3 assists
Dinamo Makhachkala
- G. Agalarov4 goals
- N. Glushkov2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Akhmat carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.23 for Dinamo Makhachkala. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.96 goals for Akhmat and 1.23 for Dinamo Makhachkala. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Akhmat rate 0.62 in attack and 1.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Makhachkala rate 0.56 and 1.94.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Dinamo Makhachkala, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Akhmat a 1% chance of the title and Dinamo Makhachkala 2.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Akhmat the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Akhmat against 1.23 for Dinamo Makhachkala. Akhmat's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.94 for Dinamo Makhachkala.