Coventry vs Brighton Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Coventry 0-5 Brighton.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Coventry, 31% draw, 35% Brighton — fair odds of 2.94, 3.23 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Brighton at 35% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Coventry vs Brighton
Line-ups
- 19C. RushworthG
- 24A. AmendaD
- 4B. ThomasD
- 2E. PinnockD
- 27M. van EwijkM
- 16F. OnyekaM
- 6M. GrimesM
- 3J. DasilvaM
- 5J. RudoniM
- 10E. Mason-ClarkM
- 14T. AwoniyiF
- 49S. CherifF
- 23B. Thomas-AsanteF
- 38G. HamerM
- 25D. BentleyG
- 12S. MfuniD
- 7T. SakamotoM
- 8Caleb Marfo YirenkyiM
- 17L. TchaounaF
- 29V. TorpM
- 1B. VerbruggenG
- 24F. KadıoğluD
- 44L. VuškovićD
- 5L. DunkD
- 21O. BoscagliD
- 13P. GroßM
- 26Y. AyariM
- 25D. GómezM
- 35M. YalcouyéM
- 29M. De CuyperM
- 19C. KostoulasF
- 3J. HadjamD
- 4P. StruijkD
- 20CostinhaD
- 14José María Andrés BaixauliM
- 15I. OsmanF
- 33M. O'RileyM
- 23J. SteeleG
- 12P. DavidF
- 59Y. IbrahimM
Form going into Coventry vs Brighton
Coventry
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Manchester City5 September 2026
- L0-1Hull City29 August 2026
- L0-3away to Arsenal21 August 2026
Brighton
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Leeds5 September 2026
- L3-4away to Chelsea30 August 2026
- W4-0Tromso27 August 2026
- W4-0Aston Villa23 August 2026
- D0-0away to Tromso20 August 2026
What these results say
- Brighton scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Coventry | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 6 |
| 3 | Brighton | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Coventry vs Brighton
- 17 February 2018Brighton 3–1 CoventryFA Cup
- 31 December 2011Coventry 2–0 BrightonChampionship
- 26 November 2011Brighton 2–1 CoventryChampionship
Leading scorers: Coventry and Brighton
Coventry
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Brighton
GoalsAssists
- P. Groß34
- C. Kostoulas32
- J. Hinshelwood30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Brighton won 5–0 at Coventry. The model had made a win for Brighton its most likely outcome, at 35%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Charalampos Kostoulas 35' for Brighton, Malick Yalcouyé 51' for Brighton, Pascal Groß (penalty) 70' for Brighton, Lewis Dunk 83' for Brighton, Yasin Ayari 90+4' for Brighton. Sent off: Taiwo Awoniyi (Coventry) 53'.
How the call on Coventry v Brighton has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 38% / 30% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 34% / 31% / 35%: the biggest move is Coventry's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Coventry win34%▼ −4
- Draw31%▲ +1
- Brighton win35%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.