Coventry
vs
Brighton
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Coventry 0-5 Brighton.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Coventry, 29% draw, 43% Brighton — fair odds of 3.57, 3.45 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Coventry 1.04, Brighton 1.56.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Coventry vs Brighton
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Brighton at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Coventry vs Brighton
Line-ups
- 19C. RushworthG
- 24A. AmendaD
- 4B. ThomasD
- 2E. PinnockD
- 27M. van EwijkM
- 16F. OnyekaM
- 6M. GrimesM
- 3J. DasilvaM
- 5J. RudoniM
- 10E. Mason-ClarkM
- 14T. AwoniyiF
- 49S. CherifF
- 23B. Thomas-AsanteF
- 38G. HamerM
- 25D. BentleyG
- 12S. MfuniD
- 7T. SakamotoM
- 8Caleb Marfo YirenkyiM
- 17L. TchaounaF
- 29V. TorpM
- 1B. VerbruggenG
- 24F. KadıoğluD
- 44L. VuškovićD
- 5L. DunkD
- 21O. BoscagliD
- 13P. GroßM
- 26Y. AyariM
- 25D. GómezM
- 35M. YalcouyéM
- 29M. De CuyperM
- 19C. KostoulasF
- 3J. HadjamD
- 4P. StruijkD
- 20CostinhaD
- 14José María Andrés BaixauliM
- 15I. OsmanF
- 33M. O'RileyM
- 23J. SteeleG
- 12P. DavidF
- 59Y. IbrahimM
Form going into Coventry vs Brighton
Coventry
- L0-1away to Manchester City5 September 2026
- L0-1Hull City29 August 2026
- L0-3away to Arsenal21 August 2026
Brighton
- D1-1Leeds5 September 2026
- L3-4away to Chelsea30 August 2026
- W4-0Aston Villa23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Coventry | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 0 |
| 5 | Brighton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Coventry vs Brighton
- 13 September 2026Coventry 0–5 BrightonPremier League
- 17 February 2018Brighton 3–1 CoventryFA Cup
- 31 December 2011Coventry 2–0 BrightonChampionship
- 26 November 2011Brighton 2–1 CoventryChampionship
Leading scorers: Coventry and Brighton
Coventry
No league goals yet this season.
Brighton
- M. Yalcouyé2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.04 goals for Coventry and 1.56 for Brighton; the game produced 0 and 5.
A gap that size between expected and actual goals is normal in a single match — it is the reason we publish probabilities rather than predictions, and why the record below is measured over hundreds of games rather than one.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Charalampos Kostoulas 35' (Brighton), Malick Yalcouyé 51' (Brighton), Pascal Groß 70' (Brighton), Lewis Dunk 83' (Brighton), Yasin Ayari 90' (Brighton).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Brighton the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Coventry against 1.56 for Brighton. Coventry's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.21/0.75 for Brighton.