16 September 2026, 17:45 UTC

Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov Premier League prediction & result

RZD Arena, Moscow
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Lokomotiv 1-1 Krylia Sovetov.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Lokomotiv, 28% draw, 34% Krylia Sovetov — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lokomotiv at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lokomotiv5%Draw91%Krylia Sovetov4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Nikolay Komlichenko
33'
33'
Nikita Chernov
Daniil Chevardin
41'
44'
Islam Chesnokov
Aleksandr Rudenko
45+1'
45'
🔁Vitaliy Shitovout: Amar Rahmanović
45'
🔁Islam Chesnokovout: Nikita Saltykov
Maksim Nenakhov
48'
⚽Nikolay Komlichenko
53'
59'
Fernando Constanza
Ilya Eremeev
64'
🔁Daniil Chevardinout: Vadim Rakov
66'
67'
⚽Amar Rahmanovićassist: Nikita Saltykov
70'
🔁Maksim Vityugovout: Kirill Stolbov
🔁Nikolay Titkovout: Zelimkhan Bakaev
71'
74'
Amar Rahmanović
80'
🔁Martin Kramaričout: Mihajlo Banjac
Mikhail Galaktionov
80'
🔁Nikolay Komlichenkoout: Sergey Pinyaev
86'
🔁Aleksandr Rudenkoout: Danila Godyaev
86'
86'
🔁Nikolay Rasskazovout: Dominik Oroz

Match stats — Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov

56%Possession44%
11Shots18
3On target6
3Corners1

Line-ups

Lokomotiv 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. MitryushkinG
  • 24M. NenakhovD
  • 85E. MorozovD
  • 45A. SiljanovD
  • 74D. ChevardinD
  • 75I. EremeevM
  • 6S. BabkinM
  • 18N. TitkovM
  • 19A. RudenkoM
  • 77A. MostovoyM
  • 27N. KomlichenkoF
Substitutes
  • 7Z. BakaevM
  • 16D. VeselovG
  • 88M. ShchetininM
  • 11V. RakovF
  • 9S. PinyaevM
  • 99R. MyalkovskiyF
  • 22I. LantratovG
  • 63V. GolubevF
  • 47D. GodyaevM
Coach: M. Galaktionov
Krylia Sovetov 4-2-3-1
  • 80N. KokarevG
  • 15N. RasskazovD
  • 23N. ChernovD
  • 47S. BozhinD
  • 2K. PecheninD
  • 22Fernando CostanzaM
  • 4Y. GorshkovM
  • 17I. ChesnokovM
  • 8M. VityugovM
  • 10M. KramaričM
  • 73V. ShitovF
Substitutes
  • 20K. StolbovM
  • 97I. AkhmetovM
  • 7M. BanjacM
  • 72Dani FernándezD
  • 39E. FrolovG
  • 3T. GaldamesD
  • 18I. LepskiyD
  • 77D. MakarovM
  • 67Kazbek MukailovF
Coach: S. Bulatov

Form going into Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov

Lokomotiv

Premier League

  • L1-2away to Zenit12 September 2026

Krylia Sovetov

Premier League

  • W2-1Rodina Moskva11 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Lokomotiv122551616011
8Krylia Sovetov123631717015

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov

  • 25 April 2026Krylia Sovetov 2–0 LokomotivPremier League
  • 19 March 2026Krylia Sovetov 2–2 LokomotivCup
  • 31 August 2025Lokomotiv 2–2 Krylia SovetovPremier League
  • 28 March 2025Krylia Sovetov 5–1 LokomotivPremier League
  • 6 October 2024Lokomotiv 1–0 Krylia SovetovPremier League

Leading scorers: Lokomotiv and Krylia Sovetov

Lokomotiv

GoalsAssists

  • N. Titkov31

Krylia Sovetov

GoalsAssists

  • A. Rahmanović40
  • M. Kramarič31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lokomotiv and Krylia Sovetov drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Lokomotiv at 38% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Nikolay Komlichenko 53' for Lokomotiv, Amar Rahmanović 67' for Krylia Sovetov.

How the call on Lokomotiv v Krylia Sovetov has moved

First published on 2 Sep at 38% / 31% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 38% / 28% / 34%: the biggest move is Krylia Sovetov's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Lokomotiv win38%=
  2. Draw28%▼ −3
  3. Krylia Sovetov win34%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.