Lokomotiv
vs
Krylia Sovetov
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Lokomotiv 2–1 Krylia Sovetov
The model makes it 40% Lokomotiv, 28% draw, 32% Krylia Sovetov — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Lokomotiv 1.64, Krylia Sovetov 1.32.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Lokomotiv wins, grey are draws, red are Krylia Sovetov wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lokomotiv at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov
Lokomotiv
- L1-2away to Zenit12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Baltika6 September 2026
- L0-1Dynamo29 August 2026
- L2-3away to CSKA Moscow22 August 2026
- D1-1away to FC Orenburg14 August 2026
Krylia Sovetov
- W2-1Rodina Moskva11 September 2026
- D2-2FC Krasnodar5 September 2026
- D3-3away to Akhmat29 August 2026
- W3-0away to Akron23 August 2026
- L1-4Dinamo Makhachkala16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lokomotiv | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 |
| 10 | Krylia Sovetov | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Lokomotiv vs Krylia Sovetov
- 25 April 2026Krylia Sovetov 2–0 LokomotivPremier League
- 19 March 2026Krylia Sovetov 2–2 LokomotivCup
- 31 August 2025Lokomotiv 2–2 Krylia SovetovPremier League
- 28 March 2025Krylia Sovetov 5–1 LokomotivPremier League
- 6 October 2024Lokomotiv 1–0 Krylia SovetovPremier League
- 25 November 2023Krylya Sovetov 3–3 Lokomotiv MoscowPremier League
Leading scorers: Lokomotiv and Krylia Sovetov
Lokomotiv
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Krylia Sovetov
- I. Oleynikov3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Lokomotiv carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.27 for Krylia Sovetov. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.64 goals for Lokomotiv and 1.32 for Krylia Sovetov. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lokomotiv rate 0.48 in attack and 1.71 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Krylia Sovetov rate 0.64 and 2.10.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Krylia Sovetov, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lokomotiv a 0.2% chance of the title and Krylia Sovetov 0.5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lokomotiv the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Lokomotiv against 1.32 for Krylia Sovetov. Lokomotiv's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.71 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/2.1 for Krylia Sovetov.