16 September 2026, 19:30 UTC

Barcelona vs Racing Santander La Liga prediction & result

Camp Nou, Barcelona
Full time7 – 2

Final score: Barcelona 7-2 Racing Santander.

Before kick-off the model made it 60% Barcelona, 22% draw, 18% Racing Santander — fair odds of 1.67, 4.55 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Barcelona at 60% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽J. Canceloassist: Lamine Yamal
8'
22'
Pedro Felipe
⚽Raphinha (pen)
25'
30'
⚽M. Gueyeassist: A. Villalibre
⚽A. Villalibre (OG)
36'
⚽Raphinhaassist: D. Olmo
42'
⚽Lamine Yamal (pen)
45'
Lamine Yamal
45+5'
🔁J. Garciaout: W. Szczesny
46'
59'
🔁J. Aranaout: Y. Zabiri
59'
🔁A. Villalibreout: I. Vicente
59'
🔁Pedro Felipeout: I. Luque
Karim Adeyemi
60'
60'
Yassir Zabiri
🔁Pedriout: Gavi
61'
🔁Rodriout: M. Bernal
61'
65'
⚽Y. Zabiri
⚽Raphinha (pen)
67'
João Cancelo
69'
🔁Raphinhaout: Gabriel Jesus
69'
🔁J. Canceloout: A. Balde
78'
78'
🔁I. Sainz-Mazaout: G. Guliashvili
⚽Gabriel Jesusassist: Lamine Yamal
79'
86'
🔁F. Gonzalezout: J. Salinas
⚽Lamine Yamalassist: K. Adeyemi
89'

Match stats — Barcelona vs Racing Santander

69%Possession31%
30Shots5
9On target3
18Corners0
6.74xG1.98

Goals against chances

Barcelona7 from 6.74 xGabout what the chances were worth
Racing Santander2 from 1.98 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Barcelona 4-3-3
  • 1J. GarciaG
  • 24E. GarciaD
  • 15A. ChristensenD
  • 18G. MartinD
  • 2J. CanceloD
  • 20D. OlmoM
  • 16RodriM
  • 8PedriM
  • 10Lamine YamalF
  • 11RaphinhaF
  • 14K. AdeyemiF
Substitutes
  • 13W. SzczesnyG
  • 25D. LivakovicG
  • 23J. KoundeD
  • 3A. BaldeD
  • 5P. CubarsiD
  • 12X. EspartD
  • 6GaviM
  • 22M. BernalM
  • 7FerminM
Coach: Hansi Flick
Racing Santander 4-1-3-2
  • 13J. AgirrezabalaG
  • 4Manu HernandoD
  • 22Pedro FelipeD
  • 16F. GonzalezD
  • 3A. MartinD
  • 18M. PratiM
  • 20S. CanalesM
  • 14M. GueyeM
  • 6I. Sainz-MazaM
  • 12A. VillalibreF
  • 9J. AranaF
Substitutes
  • 31L. Gomez RodriguezG
  • 2A. MantillaD
  • 17J. SalinasD
  • 5P. RamonD
  • 24J. BelocianD
  • 23I. MartinM
  • 7G. GuliashviliF
  • 21Y. ZabiriF
  • 10I. VicenteF
Coach: Jose Lopez

Form going into Barcelona vs Racing Santander

Barcelona

All competitions we cover

  • W4-2away to Levante13 September 2026
  • W5-1Feyenoord9 September 2026
  • W5-0away to Valencia6 September 2026
  • W5-2Rayo Vallecano31 August 2026
  • W2-0Athletic Club27 August 2026

Racing Santander

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Alaves12 September 2026
  • L2-3away to Rayo Vallecano5 September 2026
  • W3-2Elche28 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Getafe23 August 2026
  • D2-2Villarreal16 August 2026

What these results say

  • Barcelona won every one of these 5 matches.
  • Barcelona scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Barcelona had three goals or more.
  • Racing Santander conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Racing Santander scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Racing Santander had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Barcelona109014011+2927
13Racing Santander103251526-1111

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Barcelona vs Racing Santander

  • 15 January 2026Racing Santander 0–2 BarcelonaCopa del Rey
  • 11 March 2012Racing Santander 0–2 BarcelonaLa Liga
  • 15 October 2011Barcelona 3–0 Racing SantanderLa Liga
  • 22 January 2011Barcelona 3–0 Racing SantanderLa Liga
  • 29 August 2010Racing Santander 0–3 BarcelonaLa Liga

The full Barcelona vs Racing Santander record →

Leading scorers: Barcelona and Racing Santander

Barcelona

GoalsAssists

  • Raphinha133
  • Lamine Yamal86
  • Fermín43

Racing Santander

GoalsAssists

  • M. Zabiri80

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Barcelona beat Racing Santander 7–2. The model had made a win for Barcelona its most likely outcome, at 60%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: J. Cancelo 8' for Barcelona, Raphinha (penalty) 25' for Barcelona, M. Gueye 30' for Racing Santander, A. Villalibre (own goal) 36' for Barcelona, Raphinha 42' for Barcelona, Y. Zabiri 65' for Racing Santander, Raphinha (penalty) 67' for Barcelona, Gabriel Jesus 79' for Barcelona, Lamine Yamal 89' for Barcelona. On expected goals it finished 6.74–1.98.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.