Barcelona
vs
Racing Santander
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Barcelona 3–1 Racing Santander
The model makes it 61% Barcelona, 21% draw, 18% Racing Santander — fair odds of 1.64, 4.76 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Barcelona 3.05, Racing Santander 1.11.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Barcelona vs Racing Santander
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Barcelona wins, grey are draws, red are Racing Santander wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Barcelona at 61% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Barcelona vs Racing Santander
Barcelona
- W4-2away to Levante13 September 2026
- W5-0away to Valencia6 September 2026
- W5-2Rayo Vallecano31 August 2026
- W2-0Athletic Club27 August 2026
- W5-0away to Elche23 August 2026
Racing Santander
- W2-1Alaves12 September 2026
- L2-3away to Rayo Vallecano5 September 2026
- W3-2Elche28 August 2026
- L0-1away to Getafe23 August 2026
- D2-2Villarreal16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 15 |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Barcelona vs Racing Santander
- 15 January 2026Racing Santander 0–2 BarcelonaCopa del Rey
- 11 March 2012Racing Santander 0–2 BarcelonaLa Liga
- 15 October 2011Barcelona 3–0 Racing SantanderLa Liga
- 22 January 2011Barcelona 3–0 Racing SantanderLa Liga
- 29 August 2010Racing Santander 0–3 BarcelonaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Barcelona and Racing Santander
Barcelona
- Raphinha6 goals3 assists
- Lamine Yamal6 goals
- Fermín4 goals2 assists
Racing Santander
- M. Zabiri5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Barcelona carry a model rating of 7.24 against 6.87 for Racing Santander. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.05 goals for Barcelona and 1.11 for Racing Santander. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Barcelona rate 1.77 in attack and 0.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Racing Santander rate 1.10 and 1.06.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Barcelona the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.05 expected goals for Barcelona against 1.11 for Racing Santander. Barcelona's attack/defence rating is 1.77/0.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.1/1.06 for Racing Santander.