Baltika vs Zenit Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Baltika 2-3 Zenit.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Baltika, 28% draw, 31% Zenit — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Baltika at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Baltika vs Zenit
Line-ups
- 1E. LatyshonokG
- 19M. ShnaptsevD
- 2S. VaratynovD
- 24L. MouyokoloD
- 4N. GassamaD
- 22M. BeveevD
- 73M. PetrovM
- 8A. MendelM
- 5A. MouridM
- 7K. ShiltsovM
- 91B. GilF
- 69E. GolenkovF
- 26I. BelikovM
- 3I. KirschD
- 81I. KukushkinG
- 44E. LyubakovG
- 9C. OfforF
- 10I. PetrovM
- 11I. PorokhovF
- 42V. PospelovM
- 16D. AdamovG
- 31Gustavo MantuanD
- 78I. DiveevD
- 25K. AndradeD
- 3Douglas SantosD
- 5W. BarriosM
- 93A. KarpukasM
- 10M. GlushenkovM
- 20Pedro HenriqueM
- 11Luiz HenriqueM
- 7A. SobolevF
- 9Felipe AugustoF
- 82S. VolkovD
- 66R. VegaD
- 51V. ShilovF
- 71D. OdoevskiyG
- 38Amir MusaevM
- 57B. MoskvichevG
- 61D. KondakovM
- 15V. KaravaevD
Form going into Baltika vs Zenit
Baltika
Premier League
- D2-2away to Fakel12 September 2026
Zenit
Premier League
- W2-1Lokomotiv12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Baltika | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 14 |
| 1 | Zenit | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 13 | +14 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Baltika vs Zenit
- 5 August 2026Zenit 1–0 BaltikaCup
- 3 March 2026Baltika 0–1 ZenitCup
- 27 February 2026Zenit 1–0 BaltikaPremier League
- 14 September 2025Baltika 0–0 ZenitPremier League
- 2 June 2024Baltika 1–2 ZenitCup
Leading scorers: Baltika and Zenit
Baltika
GoalsAssists
- B. Gil41
Zenit
GoalsAssists
- M. Glushenkov102
- A. Sobolev82
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Zenit won 3–2 at Baltika. The model had leaned towards a win for Baltika at 41% and given a win for Zenit 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Maksim Glushenkov 9' for Zenit, Aleksandr Sobolev 16' for Zenit, Brayan Gil 22' for Baltika, Luiz Henrique 49' for Zenit, Ilya Petrov 81' for Baltika.
How the call on Baltika v Zenit has moved
First published on 2 Sep at 35% / 30% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 41% / 28% / 31%: the biggest move is Baltika's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Baltika win41%▲ +6
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Zenit win31%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.