Spartak Moscow
vs
Akron
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Spartak Moscow 2–0 Akron
The model makes it 63% Spartak Moscow, 21% draw, 16% Akron — fair odds of 1.59, 4.76 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Spartak Moscow 2.39, Akron 0.95.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
One-sided: Spartak Moscow are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Spartak Moscow's rating is built from 41 Russian Premier League matches and Akron's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 581 matches.
Key facts
- Spartak Moscow are 4th on 23 points from 11 games; Akron are 12th on 12 points from 12 games — Premier League.
- Spartak Moscow are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 4-0 win at home to Rubin.
- Akron have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Dynamo.
- Last 5 meetings: Spartak Moscow 4 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 March 2026, ended Spartak Moscow 4–3 Akron.
More Russian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Spartak Moscow vs Akron
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Spartak Moscow at 63% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Spartak Moscow vs Akron
Spartak Moscow
Premier League
- W4-0Rubin18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Krylia Sovetov10 October 2026
- W1-0Fakel16 September 2026
- W3-0FC Rostov13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Dynamo6 September 2026
Akron
Premier League
- W3-1Dynamo24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Dinamo Makhachkala17 October 2026
- L0-1away to FC Rostov9 October 2026
- W2-0Akhmat17 September 2026
- D1-1away to FC Krasnodar13 September 2026
What these results say
- Spartak Moscow scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Akron scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Akron conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Akron had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 23 |
| 12 | Akron | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Spartak Moscow vs Akron
- 9 March 2026Spartak Moscow 4–3 AkronPremier League
- 3 August 2025Akron 1–1 Spartak MoscowPremier League
- 19 April 2025Akron 2–3 Spartak MoscowPremier League
- 12 March 2025Akron 2–3 Spartak MoscowCup
- 10 November 2024Spartak Moscow 4–0 AkronPremier League
Leading scorers: Spartak Moscow and Akron
Spartak Moscow
GoalsAssists
- M. Daku51
- M. Ugalde50
Akron
GoalsAssists
- Gilson Benchimol42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Spartak Moscow carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.14 for Akron. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.39 goals for Spartak Moscow and 0.95 for Akron. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Spartak Moscow rate 0.70 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Akron rate 0.53 and 2.21.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Spartak Moscow a 18.4% chance of the title and Akron 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Spartak Moscow the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Spartak Moscow against 0.95 for Akron. Spartak Moscow's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/2.21 for Akron.
How the model reaches 63% for Spartak Moscow to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Spartak Moscow to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Spartak Moscow's ratings take away 18 points and Akron's ratings add 39 points, which lands on the published 63%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Spartak Moscow's ratings24%−18
- Akron's ratings63%+39
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Spartak Moscow at home · Akron away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Spartak Moscow 11, Akron 12.
Spartak Moscow score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Akron have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Spartak Moscow
- at Dinamo Makhachkala22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 50%
- at Fakel30 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 57%
- vs Dynamo6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 44%
Akron
- vs Fakel21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 51%
- at Rubin28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 30%
- vs FC Orenburg5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- at Akhmat27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.