Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Sparta Rotterdam 3-3 Utrecht.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Sparta Rotterdam, 23% draw, 41% Utrecht — fair odds of 2.78, 4.35 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Utrecht at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1F. BednarekG
- 3M. YoungD
- 2N. VerschurenD
- 4B. Martins IndiD
- 7L. MartesM
- 10S. MitoM
- 6J. BaasM
- 5B. KuipersM
- 8R. van Cruijsen
- 9N. ThorissonF
- 11A. SantosF
- 30R. SuurG
- 20P. KuiperG
- 12B. ReithD
- 13T. QuinteroD
- 14G. VianelloD
- 18J. ToornstraM
- 16A. RoaldsoyM
- 21Y. Jaber el MaftahiM
- 19M. ZonneveldF
- 1V. BarkasG
- 2S. HoremansD
- 3M. DiddenD
- 21N. Ogidi Nwankwo
- 23N. VesterlundM
- 20D. de WitM
- 34D. van den BergM
- 92A. ZagreM
- 11A. AlarconF
- 18A. StepanovF
- 10Y. CathlineF
- 25M. BrouwerG
- 33K. GadellaaG
- 35V. PlantingaD
- 6G. OfferhausD
- 32P. KloosterboerD
- 14Z. IqbalM
- 30K. ParedesM
- 15A. BlakeF
- 47E. C. OwenF
Form going into Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht
Sparta Rotterdam
All competitions we cover
- W3-1away to Telstar14 August 2026
- L0-1Feyenoord9 August 2026
Utrecht
All competitions we cover
- L1-4AZ Alkmaar15 August 2026
- L1-2away to Groningen9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 12 |
| 14 | Utrecht | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sparta Rotterdam vs Utrecht
- 25 January 2026Utrecht 0–1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 17 August 2025Sparta Rotterdam 2–1 UtrechtEredivisie
- 14 May 2025Utrecht 1–1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 3 November 2024Sparta Rotterdam 1–4 UtrechtEredivisie
- 23 May 2024Utrecht 3–1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
Leading scorers: Sparta Rotterdam and Utrecht
Sparta Rotterdam
GoalsAssists
- M. Zonneveld72
Utrecht
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sparta Rotterdam and Utrecht drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Utrecht at 41% and given a draw 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Didden 16' for Utrecht, M. Young 45' for Sparta Rotterdam, A. Stepanov 46' for Utrecht, M. Zonneveld 67' for Sparta Rotterdam, A. Blake 76' for Utrecht, N. Verschuren 90' for Sparta Rotterdam. On expected goals it finished 1.73–1.92.