Heerenveen
vs
PEC Zwolle
Eredivisie prediction
The model makes it 56% Heerenveen, 22% draw, 22% PEC Zwolle — fair odds of 1.79, 4.55 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Heerenveen 2.10, PEC Zwolle 1.27.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Heerenveen
- W1-0Twente9 August 2026
PEC Zwolle
- L0-2Ajax9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where they stand. Heerenveen has not started the league season yet. Full tables
Head-to-head: Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle
- 15 February 2026Heerenveen 4–2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 28 November 2025PEC Zwolle 2–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 9 October 2025Heerenveen 4–1 PEC ZwolleFriendlies Clubs
- 16 February 2025PEC Zwolle 1–1 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 6 October 2024Heerenveen 1–1 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 19 July 2024Heerenveen 5–2 PEC ZwolleFriendlies Clubs
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Heerenveen carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.57 for PEC Zwolle. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Heerenveen W; PEC Zwolle L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.10 goals for Heerenveen and 1.27 for PEC Zwolle. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Heerenveen rate 0.83 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; PEC Zwolle rate 0.77 and 1.34.
That points to 66% for over two and a half goals and 64% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Heerenveen the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.1 expected goals for Heerenveen against 1.27 for PEC Zwolle. Heerenveen's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.34 for PEC Zwolle.