Fortuna Sittard
vs
AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie prediction
The model makes it 32% Fortuna Sittard, 27% draw, 41% AZ Alkmaar — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Fortuna Sittard 1.29, AZ Alkmaar 1.48.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Fortuna Sittard
- D2-2away to PSV Eindhoven8 August 2026
AZ Alkmaar
- W2-0ADO Den Haag8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Fortuna Sittard | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar
- 4 April 2026AZ Alkmaar 2–0 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 21 December 2025Fortuna Sittard 4–3 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 23 February 2025AZ Alkmaar 1–0 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 6 October 2024Fortuna Sittard 1–0 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 17 February 2024Fortuna Sittard 1–2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 1 October 2023AZ Alkmaar 4–0 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
Leading scorers
Fortuna Sittard
- É. Michut1 goals
AZ Alkmaar
- C. Stengs1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Fortuna Sittard carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.82 for AZ Alkmaar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Fortuna Sittard D; AZ Alkmaar W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.48 for AZ Alkmaar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fortuna Sittard rate 0.74 in attack and 1.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AZ Alkmaar rate 0.85 and 0.92.
That points to 52% for over two and a half goals and 56% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AZ Alkmaar the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard against 1.48 for AZ Alkmaar. Fortuna Sittard's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/0.92 for AZ Alkmaar.