Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Fortuna Sittard 0-2 AZ Alkmaar.
Before kick-off the model made it 24% Fortuna Sittard, 24% draw, 52% AZ Alkmaar — fair odds of 4.17, 4.17 and 1.92.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
AZ Alkmaar at 52%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31Mattijs BranderhorstG
- 2Siebe WylinD
- 6Syb Van OtteleD
- 28Justin HubnerD
- 15Nick de GrootD
- 22Shiloh 't ZandM
- 23Philip BrittijnM
- 20Édouard MichutM
- 10Ole RomenyF
- 25Lequincio ZeefuikF
- 9Anthony DescotteF
- 12Ivo PintoD
- 8Jasper DahlhausD
- 52Mohamed IhattarenM
- 5Yassin OukiliM
- 3Rodrigo GuthD
- 33Kaylen ReitmaierG
- 1Luuk KoopmansG
- 38Moussa GbemouM
- 44David StockbrinkF
- 28Jari De BusserG
- 22Elijah DijkstraD
- 3Wouter GoesD
- 4Lewis SchoutenD
- 5Mateo ChávezD
- 21Dave KwakmanM
- 6Peer KoopmeinersM
- 7Weslley PatatiM
- 10Kees SmitM
- 11Ro-Zangelo DaalM
- 9Mexx MeerdinkF
- 14Calvin StengsM
- 19Jizz HornkampF
- 8Jordy ClasieM
- 2Seiya MaikumaD
- 24Ayoub OufkirF
- 1Rome Jayden Owusu-OduroG
- 12Hobie VerhulstG
- 31Rion IchiharaD
- 23Billy van DuijlD
Form going into Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar
Fortuna Sittard
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Cambuur15 August 2026
- D2-2away to PSV Eindhoven8 August 2026
AZ Alkmaar
All competitions we cover
- W4-1away to Utrecht15 August 2026
- W2-0ADO Den Haag8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar
- 4 April 2026AZ Alkmaar 2–0 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 21 December 2025Fortuna Sittard 4–3 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 23 February 2025AZ Alkmaar 1–0 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
- 6 October 2024Fortuna Sittard 1–0 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 17 February 2024Fortuna Sittard 1–2 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
Leading scorers: Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar
Fortuna Sittard
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
AZ Alkmaar
GoalsAssists
- M. Meerdink63
- R. Daal51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
AZ Alkmaar won 2–0 at Fortuna Sittard. The model had made a win for AZ Alkmaar its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: J. Hornkamp 58' for AZ Alkmaar, J. Hornkamp 90+4' for AZ Alkmaar. Sent off: O. Romeny (Fortuna Sittard) 5'. On expected goals it finished 0.44–3.43.