Rustavi
vs
Dila
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: Rustavi 1–0 Dila
The model makes it 35% Rustavi, 32% draw, 33% Dila — fair odds of 2.86, 3.13 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Rustavi 1.10, Dila 1.05.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Rustavi and Dila are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Rustavi vs Dila
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rustavi at 35% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rustavi vs Dila
Rustavi
- L0-2FC Iberia 199921 September 2026
- W1-0away to Meshakhte14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Spaeri9 September 2026
- L0-1Dinamo Batumi4 September 2026
- D1-1away to Samgurali30 August 2026
Dila
- W4-1away to Spaeri21 September 2026
- L1-2away to FC Iberia 199917 September 2026
- D2-2Dinamo Batumi13 September 2026
- W3-1away to Samgurali9 September 2026
- W1-0Gagra5 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Rustavi had two goals or fewer.
- Rustavi failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rustavi conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dila scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dila conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Dila had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Rustavi | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 32 | 23 | +9 | 46 |
| 5 | Dila | 27 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 38 | 30 | +8 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Rustavi carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.34 for Dila. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for Rustavi and 1.05 for Dila. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rustavi rate 0.44 in attack and 1.36 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dila rate 0.60 and 1.68.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rustavi a 19.4% chance of the title and Dila 1.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rustavi the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.1 expected goals for Rustavi against 1.05 for Dila. Rustavi's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.68 for Dila.