Dinamo Batumi
vs
Dinamo Tbilisi
Erovnuli Liga prediction
Our model says: Dinamo Batumi 2–1 Dinamo Tbilisi
The model makes it 36% Dinamo Batumi, 28% draw, 36% Dinamo Tbilisi — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Dinamo Batumi 1.51, Dinamo Tbilisi 1.51.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Dinamo Batumi and Dinamo Tbilisi are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Dinamo Batumi vs Dinamo Tbilisi
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Batumi at 36% here. Across 2888 settled matches, 2241 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Dinamo Batumi vs Dinamo Tbilisi
Dinamo Batumi
- W3-2Torpedo Kutaisi20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Dila13 September 2026
- W2-0FC Iberia 19999 September 2026
- W1-0away to Rustavi4 September 2026
- W3-0Spaeri30 August 2026
Dinamo Tbilisi
- W3-2away to Samgurali19 September 2026
- W4-0Gagra14 September 2026
- D0-0Meshakhte10 September 2026
- D1-1away to Torpedo Kutaisi6 September 2026
- W2-1Dila31 August 2026
What these results say
- Dinamo Batumi went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Batumi scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Batumi won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Tbilisi went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Tbilisi scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Erovnuli Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Batumi | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 46 | 36 | +10 | 47 |
| 4 | Dinamo Tbilisi | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 43 | 29 | +14 | 45 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Dinamo Batumi and Dinamo Tbilisi
Dinamo Batumi
No player in Erovnuli Liga's leading scorers — 46 league goals as a side.
Dinamo Tbilisi
- Rodrigo Silva Ramos2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Dinamo Batumi carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.34 for Dinamo Tbilisi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Dinamo Batumi and 1.51 for Dinamo Tbilisi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Dinamo Batumi rate 0.61 in attack and 1.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Tbilisi rate 0.60 and 1.67.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Dinamo Batumi a 26% chance of the title and Dinamo Tbilisi 26.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1344 correct results out of 2888 settled predictions (47%), with 275 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Batumi the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Dinamo Batumi against 1.51 for Dinamo Tbilisi. Dinamo Batumi's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.67 for Dinamo Tbilisi.