Slavia Sofia
vs
Spartak Varna
First League prediction & result
Final score: Slavia Sofia 0-0 Spartak Varna.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Slavia Sofia, 30% draw, 22% Spartak Varna — fair odds of 2.08, 3.33 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Slavia Sofia 1.57, Spartak Varna 0.72.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Slavia Sofia at 48% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna
Line-ups
- 99I. AndonovG
- 20J. Semedo VarelaD
- 5David MalembanaD
- 4N. SavićD
- 87D. FerraressoD
- 71K. StoyanovD
- 95V. MiletićM
- 7R. RaychevF
- 73I. MinchevM
- 77E. StoevF
- 9Y. BornosuzovF
- 6B. TodorovM
- 8Petrov Georgi ShopovF
- 63L. NtumbaG
- 10V. NikolovM
- 24L. MarinD
- 16Maksimilian LazarovD
- 17Vasil KazaldzhievF
- 19E. GogevF
- 3M. GeorgievD
- 23P. IlievG
- 76David ValverdeD
- 44A. GranchovD
- 45J. TshitokuD
- 4B. IvanovD
- 19S. MajorM
- 17T. MarinovM
- 11Boubacar HanneF
- 82Tomás SilvaM
- 77A. IvanovF
- 70A. AhmedovF
- 90C. OkohF
- 1Pedro VictorG
- 9T. ChunchukovF
- 80A. GomesF
- 10J. LopesF
- 5D. KrastevD
- 20D. LozevD
- 72Vasco OliveiraD
- 16Edson SilvaM
Form going into Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna
Slavia Sofia
- W1-0away to Dunav Ruse7 September 2026
- L1-2Levski Sofia2 September 2026
- D1-1Septemvri Sofia28 August 2026
- D1-1away to Ludogorets22 August 2026
Spartak Varna
- D1-1CSKA Sofia5 September 2026
- D1-1Ludogorets30 August 2026
- L0-6away to Levski Sofia22 August 2026
- L0-1Septemvri Sofia17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna
- 13 September 2026Slavia Sofia 0–0 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 10 May 2026Spartak Varna 2–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 6 March 2026Slavia Sofia 4–0 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 28 September 2025Spartak Varna 1–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 9 December 2024Spartak Varna 1–3 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 9 August 2024Slavia Sofia 3–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Slavia Sofia carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.24 for Spartak Varna. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for Slavia Sofia and 0.72 for Spartak Varna. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Slavia Sofia rate 0.62 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Spartak Varna rate 0.45 and 1.56.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slavia Sofia the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Slavia Sofia against 0.72 for Spartak Varna. Slavia Sofia's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.56 for Spartak Varna.