Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna First League prediction & result
Final score: Slavia Sofia 0-0 Spartak Varna.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Slavia Sofia, 29% draw, 24% Spartak Varna — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Bulgarian First League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Slavia Sofia at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna
Line-ups
- 99I. AndonovG
- 20J. Semedo VarelaD
- 5David MalembanaD
- 4N. SavićD
- 87D. FerraressoD
- 71K. StoyanovD
- 95V. MiletićM
- 7R. RaychevF
- 73I. MinchevM
- 77E. StoevF
- 9Y. BornosuzovF
- 6B. TodorovM
- 8Petrov Georgi ShopovF
- 63L. NtumbaG
- 10V. NikolovM
- 24L. MarinD
- 16Maksimilian LazarovD
- 17Vasil KazaldzhievF
- 19E. GogevF
- 3M. GeorgievD
- 23P. IlievG
- 76David ValverdeD
- 44A. GranchovD
- 45J. TshitokuD
- 4B. IvanovD
- 19S. MajorM
- 17T. MarinovM
- 11Boubacar HanneF
- 82Tomás SilvaM
- 77A. IvanovF
- 70A. AhmedovF
- 90C. OkohF
- 1Pedro VictorG
- 9T. ChunchukovF
- 80A. GomesF
- 10J. LopesF
- 5D. KrastevD
- 20D. LozevD
- 72Vasco OliveiraD
- 16Edson SilvaM
Form going into Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna
Slavia Sofia
First League
- W1-0away to Dunav Ruse7 September 2026
Spartak Varna
First League
- D1-1CSKA Sofia5 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna
- 10 May 2026Spartak Varna 2–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 6 March 2026Slavia Sofia 4–0 Spartak VarnaFirst League
- 28 September 2025Spartak Varna 1–1 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 9 December 2024Spartak Varna 1–3 Slavia SofiaFirst League
- 9 August 2024Slavia Sofia 3–1 Spartak VarnaFirst League
Leading scorers: Slavia Sofia and Spartak Varna
Slavia Sofia
No player in First League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Spartak Varna
GoalsAssists
- Georg Stojanovski11
- J. Tshitoku10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Slavia Sofia and Spartak Varna drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Slavia Sofia at 47% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one.
How the call on Slavia Sofia v Spartak Varna has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 32% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 47% / 29% / 24%: the biggest move is Slavia Sofia's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Slavia Sofia win47%▲ +6
- Draw29%▼ −3
- Spartak Varna win24%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.