PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: PSV Eindhoven 4-1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% PSV Eindhoven, 23% draw, 18% Sparta Rotterdam — fair odds of 1.69, 4.35 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts PSV Eindhoven at 59% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam
Line-ups
- 32M. KovářG
- 8S. DestD
- 2L. GeertruidaD
- 4A. ObispoD
- 17Mauro JúniorD
- 20G. TilM
- 10P. WannerM
- 24K. SanoM
- 19E. BajraktarevicF
- 21S. MijnansF
- 37A. BouhamdiF
- 3Yarek GasiorowskiD
- 6R. FlamingoD
- 9R. PepiF
- 5I. PerišićF
- 35A. SantosM
- 1N. OlijG
- 38F. MeriénD
- 51T. SmolenaarsG
- 27D. ManF
- 1M. BrouwerG
- 3M. YoungD
- 6N. VerschurenD
- 4B. Martins IndiD
- 2L. MartesM
- 8J. BaasM
- 10Cedric HatenboerM
- 5B. KuipersM
- 7C. TerhoM
- 11M. van BergenM
- 9M. ZonneveldF
- 15G. VianelloD
- 17Robin van CruijsenM
- 18J. ToornstraM
- 16A. RoaldsøyM
- 12B. ReithD
- 30P. KuiperG
- 19Andrej KostićF
- 22Joel IdehoF
- 20F. BednarekG
Form going into PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam
PSV Eindhoven
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Shakhtar Donetsk10 September 2026
- W3-1away to Ajax5 September 2026
- W6-1away to Utrecht30 August 2026
- W5-1Groningen23 August 2026
- W2-1away to Excelsior15 August 2026
Sparta Rotterdam
All competitions we cover
- D2-2PEC Zwolle4 September 2026
- L1-2away to Excelsior29 August 2026
- D3-3Utrecht22 August 2026
- W3-1away to Telstar14 August 2026
- L0-1Feyenoord9 August 2026
What these results say
- PSV Eindhoven went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- PSV Eindhoven scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- PSV Eindhoven conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sparta Rotterdam conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sparta Rotterdam failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sparta Rotterdam scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 13 | +15 | 20 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: PSV Eindhoven vs Sparta Rotterdam
- 11 April 2026Sparta Rotterdam 0–2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 9 August 2025PSV Eindhoven 6–1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 18 May 2025Sparta Rotterdam 1–3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- 5 October 2024PSV Eindhoven 2–1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 5 May 2024PSV Eindhoven 4–2 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
Leading scorers: PSV Eindhoven and Sparta Rotterdam
PSV Eindhoven
GoalsAssists
- G. Til61
- S. Mijnans51
Sparta Rotterdam
GoalsAssists
- M. Zonneveld61
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
PSV Eindhoven beat Sparta Rotterdam 4–1. The model had made a win for PSV Eindhoven its most likely outcome, at 59%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Milan Zonneveld 15' for Sparta Rotterdam, Sven Mijnans 23' for PSV Eindhoven, Kodai Sano 39' for PSV Eindhoven, Sven Mijnans 74' for PSV Eindhoven, Sven Mijnans 88' for PSV Eindhoven.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.