Heerenveen
vs
Telstar
Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Heerenveen 0-0 Telstar.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Heerenveen, 31% draw, 29% Telstar — fair odds of 2.50, 3.23 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Heerenveen 1.34, Telstar 0.99.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Heerenveen vs Telstar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Heerenveen at 40% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Heerenveen vs Telstar
Line-ups
- 22B. KlaverboerG
- 45O. BraudeD
- 4S. KerstenD
- 3M. WillemsenD
- 19V. ZagaritisD
- 14L. SmansM
- 36N. CourtensM
- 20J. TrenskowM
- 10R. MeerveldM
- 7M. RiveraM
- 9D. VenteF
- 23D. BladiD
- 21M. FarjiF
- 29L. MachineF
- 44A. NoppertG
- 11L. OyenF
- 28H. PetrovD
- 41J. ScholtenD
- 17R. UldriķisF
- 30T. SchreuderG
- 1R. KoemanG
- 16S. ValkD
- 4A. SoualhiaD
- 43M. PeersmanD
- 3Gerald AldersM
- 30T. OwusuM
- 17N. RossenM
- 2J. HardeveldM
- 7Rui MendesM
- 27P. BrouwerM
- 11N. ÞórissonF
- 15P. AningM
- 21F. TurayF
- 23N. ShenkmanM
- 20D. ReizigerG
- 37R. OudstenD
- 13Finn MulderG
- 19A. MarthaD
- 14H. KusterM
- 8E. DemircanF
Form going into Heerenveen vs Telstar
Heerenveen
- L2-3AZ Alkmaar6 September 2026
- D2-2away to Willem II30 August 2026
- L0-2PEC Zwolle22 August 2026
- D2-2away to Ajax16 August 2026
Telstar
- L0-1away to Twente9 September 2026
- D2-2Cambuur6 September 2026
- L0-4Ajax30 August 2026
- L1-3Sparta Rotterdam14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Heerenveen | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Telstar | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Heerenveen vs Telstar
- 13 September 2026Heerenveen 0–0 TelstarEredivisie
- 14 March 2026Heerenveen 3–0 TelstarEredivisie
- 19 October 2025Telstar 2–3 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 11 July 2025Heerenveen 1–1 TelstarFriendlies Clubs
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Heerenveen carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.61 for Telstar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for Heerenveen and 0.99 for Telstar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Heerenveen rate 0.73 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Telstar rate 0.69 and 1.13.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Heerenveen a 0.1% chance of the title and Telstar 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Heerenveen the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Heerenveen against 0.99 for Telstar. Heerenveen's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.13 for Telstar.