13 September 2026, 12:30 UTC

Heerenveen vs Telstar Eredivisie prediction & result

Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Heerenveen 0-0 Telstar.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Heerenveen, 29% draw, 31% Telstar — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Heerenveen at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Heerenveen4%Draw92%Telstar4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Sam Kerstenout: Hristiyan Petrov
53'
🔁Maxence Riveraout: Luca Oyen
61'
🔁Levi Smansout: Roberts Uldriķis
61'
Vasilios Zagaritis
69'
69'
🔁Nökkvi Þeyr Þórissonout: Jelani Seedorf
75'
🔁Rui Mendesout: Harrie Kuster
🔁Jacob Trenskowout: Marko Farji
82'
Marko Farji
83'
87'
🔁Tyrone Owusuout: Isaiah Ahmed

Match stats — Heerenveen vs Telstar

63%Possession37%
23Shots12
6On target2
8Corners6

Line-ups

Heerenveen 4-2-3-1
  • 22B. KlaverboerG
  • 45O. BraudeD
  • 4S. KerstenD
  • 3M. WillemsenD
  • 19V. ZagaritisD
  • 14L. SmansM
  • 36N. CourtensM
  • 20J. TrenskowM
  • 10R. MeerveldM
  • 7M. RiveraM
  • 9D. VenteF
Substitutes
  • 23D. BladiD
  • 21M. FarjiF
  • 29L. MachineF
  • 44A. NoppertG
  • 11L. OyenF
  • 28H. PetrovD
  • 41J. ScholtenD
  • 17R. UldriķisF
  • 30T. SchreuderG
Coach: R. Veldeman
Telstar 3-4-2-1
  • 1R. KoemanG
  • 16S. ValkD
  • 4A. SoualhiaD
  • 43M. PeersmanD
  • 3Gerald AldersM
  • 30T. OwusuM
  • 17N. RossenM
  • 2J. HardeveldM
  • 7Rui MendesM
  • 27P. BrouwerM
  • 11N. ÞórissonF
Substitutes
  • 15P. AningM
  • 21F. TurayF
  • 23N. ShenkmanM
  • 20D. ReizigerG
  • 37R. OudstenD
  • 13Finn MulderG
  • 19A. MarthaD
  • 14H. KusterM
  • 8E. DemircanF
Coach: H. Brugge

Form going into Heerenveen vs Telstar

Heerenveen

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3AZ Alkmaar6 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Willem II30 August 2026
  • L0-2PEC Zwolle22 August 2026
  • D2-2away to Ajax16 August 2026
  • W1-0Twente9 August 2026

Telstar

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Twente9 September 2026
  • D2-2Cambuur6 September 2026
  • L0-4Ajax30 August 2026
  • L1-3Sparta Rotterdam14 August 2026
  • W2-1away to NEC Nijmegen8 August 2026

What these results say

  • Heerenveen failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Heerenveen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Heerenveen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Telstar conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Telstar failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Telstar had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Heerenveen104331813+515
16Telstar101361221-96

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Heerenveen vs Telstar

  • 14 March 2026Heerenveen 3–0 TelstarEredivisie
  • 19 October 2025Telstar 2–3 HeerenveenEredivisie
  • 11 July 2025Heerenveen 1–1 TelstarFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Heerenveen and Telstar

Heerenveen

GoalsAssists

  • J. Trenskow62

Telstar

GoalsAssists

  • T. Owusu40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Heerenveen and Telstar drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Heerenveen at 40% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one.

How the call on Heerenveen v Telstar has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 38% / 30% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 40% / 29% / 31%: the biggest move is Heerenveen's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Heerenveen win40%▲ +2
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Telstar win31%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.