Hapoel Tel Aviv
vs
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Ligat Ha'al prediction
Our model says: Hapoel Tel Aviv 1–0 Hapoel Petah Tikva
The model makes it 44% Hapoel Tel Aviv, 31% draw, 25% Hapoel Petah Tikva — fair odds of 2.27, 3.23 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.35, Hapoel Petah Tikva 0.77.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Petah Tikva
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 9 | 4 | |||
| 1 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Hapoel Tel Aviv wins, grey are draws, red are Hapoel Petah Tikva wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hapoel Tel Aviv at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Petah Tikva
Hapoel Tel Aviv
- L1-4away to Maccabi Tel Aviv14 September 2026
- W4-0Hapoel Ramat Gan7 September 2026
- W3-0Beitar Jerusalem3 September 2026
- D0-0away to Hapoel Haifa30 August 2026
Hapoel Petah Tikva
- L0-2Hapoel Beer Sheva13 September 2026
- L1-2away to Maccabi Haifa5 September 2026
- W1-0Hapoel Jerusalem29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Ironi Tiberias22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Hapoel Tel Aviv | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 7 |
| 9 | Hapoel Petah Tikva | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Hapoel Tel Aviv and Hapoel Petah Tikva
Hapoel Tel Aviv
- D. Owusu2 goals
- E. Boateng1 goals1 assists
- R. Alkokin1 goals1 assists
Hapoel Petah Tikva
- B. Gontran1 goals
- K. Kimvuidi1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hapoel Tel Aviv carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.36 for Hapoel Petah Tikva. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Hapoel Tel Aviv and 0.77 for Hapoel Petah Tikva. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hapoel Tel Aviv rate 0.64 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Hapoel Petah Tikva rate 0.46 and 1.30.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hapoel Tel Aviv the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Hapoel Tel Aviv against 0.77 for Hapoel Petah Tikva. Hapoel Tel Aviv's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.3 for Hapoel Petah Tikva.