Uta Arad
vs
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Uta Arad 1–0 Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
The model makes it 46% Uta Arad, 29% draw, 25% Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe — fair odds of 2.17, 3.45 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Uta Arad 1.62, Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0.92.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Uta Arad vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Uta Arad wins, grey are draws, red are Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Uta Arad at 46% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Uta Arad vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Uta Arad
- L2-4away to Farul Constanta11 September 2026
- W5-1Csikszereda5 September 2026
- W3-1away to FCSB30 August 2026
- D0-0Corvinul Hunedoara22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Universitatea Cluj17 August 2026
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
- W3-1CFR 1907 Cluj12 September 2026
- L0-5away to FC Botosani5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Arges Pitesti29 August 2026
- D1-1Farul Constanta23 August 2026
- D0-0away to Csikszereda15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Uta Arad | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 9 |
| 6 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Uta Arad vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
- 18 April 2025Uta Arad 1–1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
- 24 February 2025Uta Arad 1–2 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
- 19 October 2024Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1–0 Uta AradLiga I
- 27 January 2024Uta Arad 2–1 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
- 4 September 2023Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1–0 Uta AradLiga I
- 2 December 2022Uta Arad 1–4 Sepsi OSK Sfantu GheorgheLiga I
Leading scorers: Uta Arad and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Uta Arad
- M. Coman4 goals
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
No player in Liga I's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Uta Arad carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.23 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.62 goals for Uta Arad and 0.92 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Uta Arad rate 0.59 in attack and 1.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe rate 0.48 and 1.69.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Uta Arad a 0.1% chance of the title and Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 0.6%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Uta Arad the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Uta Arad against 0.92 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe. Uta Arad's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.69 for Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe.