Zlin
vs
Slavia Praha
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Zlin 0–2 Slavia Praha
The model makes it 14% Zlin, 21% draw, 65% Slavia Praha — fair odds of 7.14, 4.76 and 1.54. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (10%).
Expected goals: Zlin 0.78, Slavia Praha 2.94.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 72%, under 2.5: 28%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Zlin vs Slavia Praha
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Slavia Praha at 65% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Zlin vs Slavia Praha
Zlin
- D1-1away to FK Jablonec20 September 2026
- L1-2Hradec Králové13 September 2026
- L1-3Teplice6 September 2026
- L2-3away to Zbrojovka Brno29 August 2026
- L0-1Slovan Liberec22 August 2026
Slavia Praha
- W2-1Plzen20 September 2026
- W2-0away to Teplice13 September 2026
- W4-0Zbrojovka Brno5 September 2026
- W3-0away to Sparta Praha30 August 2026
- D2-2Bohemians 190522 August 2026
What these results say
- Zlin did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Zlin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Zlin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Slavia Praha went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Slavia Praha scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Slavia Praha won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Zlin | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 1 |
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 6 | +19 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Zlin vs Slavia Praha
- 14 March 2026Zlin 1–3 Slavia PrahaCzech Liga
- 29 October 2025Zlin 0–4 Slavia PrahaCup
- 18 October 2025Slavia Praha 0–0 ZlinCzech Liga
- 14 February 2024Zlin 1–1 Slavia PrahaCzech Liga
- 6 August 2023Slavia Praha 2–1 ZlinCzech Liga
- 13 November 2022Zlin 0–4 Slavia PrahaCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Zlin and Slavia Praha
Zlin
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Slavia Praha
- W. Nowak5 goals1 assists
- M. Chytil4 goals
- T. Chorý4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Zlin carry a model rating of 6.39 against 7.14 for Slavia Praha. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 0.78 goals for Zlin and 2.94 for Slavia Praha. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zlin rate 0.67 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Slavia Praha rate 1.37 and 0.77.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Zlin a 0% chance of the title and Slavia Praha 74.3%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slavia Praha the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Zlin against 2.94 for Slavia Praha. Zlin's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.37/0.77 for Slavia Praha.