Siwelele vs Golden Arrows Premier Soccer League prediction & result
Final score: Siwelele 1-1 Golden Arrows.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Siwelele, 27% draw, 31% Golden Arrows — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Siwelele at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Siwelele vs Golden Arrows
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. FebruaryG
- 2Y. MfoloziD
- 4T. SesaneD
- 80N. NgcoboD
- 29A. BalitiD
- 17S. JezaM
- 6S. RasebotjaM
- 26S. KobediM
- 16T. PotsaneM
- 11C. SaileF
- 10M. PuleF
- 50W. MthombeniG
- 5K. KhonyaneD
- 8R. MokhuoaneM
- 7N. MokhachaneM
- 23G. MargemanM
- 21B. SabreM
- 36T. R. LetshediM
- 22K. LupaluleM
- 28M. N'GuessanF
- 27T. MbanjwaG
- 3K. SheziD
- 26E. AgnikoiD
- 35T. MantshiyaneD
- 20O. MalulekeD
- 25A. MaxweleM
- 24N. DlaminiM
- 41N. ZwaneM
- 36P. KumaloF
- 18J. DionF
- 28R. Van NeelF
- 19D. MsibiG
- 29S. SitholeM
- 38N. MabasoD
- 43T. RadzhadzhiM
- 47S. Madonsela
- 14A. Van RooiF
- 17T. KhumaloD
- 49N. GasaF
- 39A. BooysenF
Form going into Siwelele vs Golden Arrows
Siwelele
Premier Soccer League
- L0-3away to Mamelodi Sundowns9 September 2026
- L2-3away to Kaizer Chiefs6 September 2026
- D1-1Chippa United25 August 2026
Golden Arrows
Premier Soccer League
- L1-2Mamelodi Sundowns6 September 2026
- W1-0Stellenbosch26 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Siwelele | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 6 |
| 8 | Golden Arrows | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Siwelele and Golden Arrows drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Siwelele at 42% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: P. Kumalo 49' for Golden Arrows, C. Saile 61' for Siwelele. On expected goals it finished 0.78–1.02.
How the call on Siwelele v Golden Arrows has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 42% / 27% / 31%: the biggest move is the draw, down 3 points.
- Siwelele win42%▲ +1
- Draw27%▼ −3
- Golden Arrows win31%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.