Avellino
vs
Palermo
Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Avellino 1-1 Palermo.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Avellino, 29% draw, 30% Palermo — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Avellino 1.64, Palermo 1.23.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Avellino vs Palermo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Avellino at 41% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Avellino vs Palermo
Avellino
- W1-0away to Modena6 September 2026
- W3-0Vicenza Virtus29 August 2026
- L1-2Arezzo22 August 2026
Palermo
- W3-1Sampdoria7 September 2026
- W3-2away to Arezzo30 August 2026
- W1-0Juve Stabia23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Avellino | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Palermo | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Avellino vs Palermo
- 5 April 2026Palermo 2–0 AvellinoSerie B
- 20 December 2025Avellino 2–2 PalermoSerie B
- 13 March 2022Avellino 1–2 PalermoSerie C - Girone C
- 31 October 2021Palermo 1–1 AvellinoSerie C - Girone C
- 26 May 2021Avellino 1–0 PalermoSerie C - Girone A
- 23 May 2021Palermo 1–0 AvellinoSerie C - Girone A
Leading scorers: Avellino and Palermo
Avellino
- R. Russo2 goals1 assists
- M. Besaggio2 goals
Palermo
- D. Johnsen3 goals2 assists
- J. Pohjanpalo1 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Avellino carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.54 for Palermo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.64 goals for Avellino and 1.23 for Palermo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Avellino rate 0.71 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Palermo rate 0.76 and 1.42.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Palermo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Avellino the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Avellino against 1.23 for Palermo. Avellino's attack/defence rating is 0.71/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.42 for Palermo.