Avellino vs Palermo Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Avellino 1-1 Palermo.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Avellino, 28% draw, 32% Palermo — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Avellino at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Avellino vs Palermo
Line-ups
- 50T. MartinelliG
- 4A. IzzoD
- 23M. VenturiD
- 56P. EnriciD
- 29T. CancellottiM
- 20M. PalumboM
- 39M. BesaggioM
- 8L. Di MaggioM
- 27B. MoruzziM
- 7L. PandolfiF
- 10R. RussoF
- 77S. Di PaoloF
- 30E. AdamoM
- 18Thomas BerenbruchM
- 14T. BiasciF
- 9W. CheddiraF
- 5A. Di BitontoD
- 16G. FaticantiM
- 1A. IannarilliG
- 2F. MissoriD
- 14M. FortinG
- 84T. CassandroD
- 13M. BaniD
- 93F. BarbaD
- 11E. GyasiM
- 8J. SegreM
- 10F. RanocchiaM
- 3T. AugelloM
- 5A. PalumboM
- 9D. VavassoriM
- 20J. PohjanpaloF
- 63N. BalagušsG
- 33A. BozzolanD
- 32P. CeccaroniD
- 24N. EstévezM
- 99A. GabrielloniF
- 6C. GomesM
- 96G. MagnaniD
- 12M. NespolaG
- 27N. PierozziD
Form going into Avellino vs Palermo
Avellino
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Modena6 September 2026
- W3-0Vicenza Virtus29 August 2026
- L1-2Arezzo22 August 2026
Palermo
All competitions we cover
- W3-1Sampdoria7 September 2026
- W3-2away to Arezzo30 August 2026
- W1-0Juve Stabia23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Avellino | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 12 |
| 1 | Palermo | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Avellino vs Palermo
- 5 April 2026Palermo 2–0 AvellinoSerie B
- 20 December 2025Avellino 2–2 PalermoSerie B
- 13 March 2022Avellino 1–2 PalermoSerie C - Girone C
- 31 October 2021Palermo 1–1 AvellinoSerie C - Girone C
- 26 May 2021Avellino 1–0 PalermoSerie C - Girone A
Leading scorers: Avellino and Palermo
Avellino
GoalsAssists
- R. Russo42
- M. Besaggio30
Palermo
GoalsAssists
- D. Johnsen65
- D. Vavassori41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Avellino and Palermo drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Avellino at 40% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Walid Cheddira 60' for Avellino, Dennis Johnsen 63' for Palermo.