Orlando Pirates
vs
Durban City
Premier Soccer League prediction
Our model says: Orlando Pirates 2–1 Durban City
The model makes it 48% Orlando Pirates, 27% draw, 25% Durban City — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Orlando Pirates 1.94, Durban City 1.08.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Orlando Pirates vs Durban City
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Orlando Pirates wins, grey are draws, red are Durban City wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Orlando Pirates at 48% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Orlando Pirates vs Durban City
Orlando Pirates
- W4-0away to Kruger United1 September 2026
- W2-0Sekhukhune United25 August 2026
- W3-0away to Chippa United16 August 2026
- D1-1away to Amazulu12 August 2026
- W2-0Milford FC1 August 2026
Durban City
- D0-0Stellenbosch1 September 2026
- W2-0away to Kruger United25 August 2026
- D1-1Richards Bay15 August 2026
- D0-0Golden Arrows12 August 2026
- L0-1away to Sekhukhune United1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Soccer League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Orlando Pirates | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 1 | +11 | 13 |
| 9 | Durban City | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Orlando Pirates and Durban City
Orlando Pirates
- O. Appollis2 goals2 assists
- B. Radiopane2 goals1 assists
- Y. Mbuthuma2 goals
Durban City
No player in Premier Soccer League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Orlando Pirates carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.39 for Durban City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.94 goals for Orlando Pirates and 1.08 for Durban City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Orlando Pirates rate 0.81 in attack and 1.54 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Durban City rate 0.58 and 1.47.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Orlando Pirates a 57.1% chance of the title and Durban City 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Orlando Pirates the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Orlando Pirates against 1.08 for Durban City. Orlando Pirates's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.47 for Durban City.