Regular Season - 4 · 13 September 2026, 18:00 UTC

PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis Super League 1 prediction & result

Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki
Full time2 – 0

Final score: PAOK 2-0 Aris Thessalonikis.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% PAOK, 26% draw, 22% Aris Thessalonikis — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).

Expected goals: PAOK 2.06, Aris Thessalonikis 0.94.

Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.

Model confidence: High.

Published · updated

Model insights: PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis

54%
Both teams to score
58%
Over 2.5 goals
42%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines2-0 11%1-1 10%2-1 10%

Has the model earned this number?

It puts PAOK at 52% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

PAOK99%Draw1%Aris Thessalonikis0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Jonjoe Kenny
3'
Christos Zafeiris
20'
25'
Tino Kadewere
•Cherif Ndiaye
30'
⚽Cherif Ndiaye (pen)
32'
⚽Andrija Živković
42'
45'
🔁Ayotomiwa Dele-Bashiruout: Manu García
61'
🔁Tino Kadewereout: Loren Moron
🔁Christos Zafeirisout: Kristijan Jakić
64'
🔁Taison Barcellos Fredaout: Mady Camara
73'
🔁Dimitrios Pelkasout: Dimitrios Chatsidis
73'
Cherif Ndiaye
77'
78'
🔁Noah Fadigaout: Jeremy Petris
78'
🔁Giannis Gianniotasout: Christian Kouamé
85'
🔁Benjamin Garréout: Sebastián Palacios
🔁Cherif Ndiayeout: Anestis Mythou
85'
🔁Andrija Živkovićout: Taha Ali
85'

Match stats — PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis

46%Possession54%
13Shots15
5On target3
3Corners7

Line-ups

PAOK 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. PavlenkaG
  • 3J. KennyD
  • 19Diego CostaD
  • 5G. MichailidisD
  • 21A. BabaD
  • 20C. ZafeirisM
  • 16O. UgresićM
  • 14A. ŽivkovićM
  • 10D. PelkasM
  • 11TaisonM
  • 27C. NdiayeF
Substitutes
  • 97D. BataoulasD
  • 2M. CamaraM
  • 52D. ChatsidisF
  • 18K. JakićM
  • 78G. KosidisD
  • 56A. MythouF
  • 7B. SantamaríaM
  • 47S. ShoretireF
  • 32G. TaylorD
Coach: A. Lisci
Aris Thessalonikis 4-2-3-1
  • 33Ricardo VelhoG
  • 27N. FadigaD
  • 4FabianoD
  • 44B. ŠutaloD
  • 3O. RichardsD
  • 20T. Dele-BashiruM
  • 10U. RačićM
  • 7B. GarréM
  • 97F. JensenM
  • 70G. GianniotasM
  • 9T. KadewereF
Substitutes
  • 8C. KouaméF
  • 5Manu GarcíaM
  • 41Konstantinos CharoupasM
  • 49O. BoussaidM
  • 24Apostolos barbopoulosG
  • 21L. MajkićG
  • 17Rafa MirF
  • 80Loren MorónF
  • 34S. PalaciosF
Coach: M. Grigoriou

Form going into PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis

PAOK

  • L1-3away to Panathinaikos6 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Atromitos30 August 2026
  • W4-0Levadiakos23 August 2026

Aris Thessalonikis

  • L0-5away to AEK Athens FC5 September 2026
  • W2-1OFI30 August 2026
  • W3-2away to Kalamata22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Super League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2PAOK430194+59
7Aris Thessalonikis4202510-56

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis

  • 8 February 2026Aris Thessalonikis 0–0 PAOKSuper League 1
  • 7 December 2025PAOK 3–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
  • 3 December 2025Aris Thessalonikis 1–1 PAOKCup
  • 19 January 2025Aris Thessalonikis 0–0 PAOKSuper League 1
  • 29 September 2024PAOK 0–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
  • 19 May 2024Aris Thessalonikis 1–2 PAOKSuper League 1

Leading scorers: PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis

PAOK

  • D. Pelkas3 goals
  • A. Živković2 goals2 assists

Aris Thessalonikis

  • Fabiano2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Expected against actual

Pre-match the model expected 2.06 goals for PAOK and 0.94 for Aris Thessalonikis; the game produced 2 and 0.

Goals

Scorers, in order: Cherif Ndiaye 32' (PAOK), Andrija Živković 42' (PAOK).

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives PAOK the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.06 expected goals for PAOK against 0.94 for Aris Thessalonikis. PAOK's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.39 for Aris Thessalonikis.