PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis Super League 1 prediction & result
Final score: PAOK 2-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% PAOK, 26% draw, 26% Aris Thessalonikis — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Greek Super League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts PAOK at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis
Line-ups
- 1J. PavlenkaG
- 3J. KennyD
- 19Diego CostaD
- 5G. MichailidisD
- 21A. BabaD
- 20C. ZafeirisM
- 16O. UgresićM
- 14A. ŽivkovićM
- 10D. PelkasM
- 11TaisonM
- 27C. NdiayeF
- 97D. BataoulasD
- 2M. CamaraM
- 52D. ChatsidisF
- 18K. JakićM
- 78G. KosidisD
- 56A. MythouF
- 7B. SantamaríaM
- 47S. ShoretireF
- 32G. TaylorD
- 33Ricardo VelhoG
- 27N. FadigaD
- 4FabianoD
- 44B. ŠutaloD
- 3O. RichardsD
- 20T. Dele-BashiruM
- 10U. RačićM
- 7B. GarréM
- 97F. JensenM
- 70G. GianniotasM
- 9T. KadewereF
- 8C. KouaméF
- 5Manu GarcíaM
- 41Konstantinos CharoupasM
- 49O. BoussaidM
- 24Apostolos barbopoulosG
- 21L. MajkićG
- 17Rafa MirF
- 80Loren MorónF
- 34S. PalaciosF
Form going into PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis
PAOK
All competitions we cover
- L1-3away to Panathinaikos6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Atromitos30 August 2026
- L2-3away to Brann27 August 2026
- W4-0Levadiakos23 August 2026
- D1-1Brann20 August 2026
Aris Thessalonikis
All competitions we cover
- L0-5away to AEK Athens FC5 September 2026
- W2-1OFI30 August 2026
- W3-2away to Kalamata22 August 2026
What these results say
- PAOK scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- PAOK conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for PAOK had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | PAOK | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 15 |
| 4 | Aris Thessalonikis | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis
- 8 February 2026Aris Thessalonikis 0–0 PAOKSuper League 1
- 7 December 2025PAOK 3–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
- 3 December 2025Aris Thessalonikis 1–1 PAOKCup
- 19 January 2025Aris Thessalonikis 0–0 PAOKSuper League 1
- 29 September 2024PAOK 0–1 Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1
Leading scorers: PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis
PAOK
GoalsAssists
- D. Pelkas30
- C. Ndiaye30
Aris Thessalonikis
GoalsAssists
- Fabiano40
- C. Kouamé30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
PAOK beat Aris Thessalonikis 2–0. The model had made a win for PAOK its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Cherif Ndiaye (penalty) 32' for PAOK, Andrija Živković 42' for PAOK.
How the call on PAOK v Aris Thessalonikis has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 52% / 26% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 48% / 26% / 26%: the biggest move is PAOK's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- PAOK win48%▼ −4
- Draw26%=
- Aris Thessalonikis win26%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.